Hot Summer Moon

Even the word 'measurement' came from 'moon' and the first calendars were lunar. The moon is so clockwork that in its returning to its same position with respect to the background stars, it loses merely 10 seconds per lunar year. Anyone possessing a watch with that precision would be well pleased. Through the development of ancient calendars extreme weather events like monsoons, typhoons, droughts and floods could be foretold. Many Asian countries enjoyed long traditions of such forecasting but through conquest by the West this ability has largely fallen into disuse.

 

There are reasons for the recent high temperatures in this part of the world, and it can be shown that they correlate well with recent positions of the moon. In January the moon was furthest north (northern declination) on 9 January, and the the closest moon-earth distance for the year (perigee), was on the 10th. Full moon was barely a day away on the 11th. This awesome threesome not three days apart added up to a build-up of unusual heat in the southern hemisphere because hot moist air from the equator was being shunted southwards by the close full moon. Normally any one of these lunar factors in summer raises temperature. Right across Australia the heat brought discomfort. A cyclone brewed in Fiji, as they always do in summer full moon phase. Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, record-breaking colder weather was developing as freezing air from the Arctic enveloped the UK and Canada. The effect in both hemispheres then diminished as the moon moved away from its critical position. The perigee lost force, the moon trekked further south and down here slowly lost its hot winds, and full moon became last quarter, shifting cooler weather into the afternoon and evening. If it was not causal then it is rather coincidental that the hot temperatures in both NZ and Australia in January came exactly when close(perigee) northerly moon(northern declination) was in full moon phase, between 9th-11th, followed two weeks later by the far-away south new moon phase between 23rd-26th (Sydney’s hottest January minimum was on the 23rd and hottest maximum on 24th).  Sydney’s cloudiest days in January were on the 8th and 26th, reflecting the increased evaporation rates. These unusually hotter conditions repeated over the full moon weekend of Feb 6th-10th, easing again with the passing of that full moon peak.

 

When in summer the moon combines the peaks or troughs of these three independent cycles you have this recipe for increased heat. Two weeks later the heat repeats because when the New moon is in the southern hemisphere and further away,  cool heavier air directed downwards at night when the moon is absent from the sky creates daytime high pressure which traps the sun’s heat so it cannot escape.

 

But blame for the fires comes from anything but the moon. Some politicians and media, never shying too far from the popular bandwagon, blamed global warming and climate change.

(ref: http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5310933/climate-change-brings-extreme-weather/)

Catch-The-Fire Ministries Leader Pastor Danny Nalliah, said he was told in a dream that the abortion laws were to blame, and God had decided to extract His punishment on the good people of the State of Victoria. (http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2009/02/abortion-laws-t.html ).

One might more realistically point the finger at past and ongoing green policies, which have put it around that all fires are bad, stopping the burning of  trees for fire breaks. As a result, over the past 30-40 years there has been a build-up of unprecedented amounts of forest fuel in SE Australia, just waiting for a catastrophe. Planes carrying monsoon buckets were denied permits to take off, for fear they would add unnecessarily to the annual 'carbon footprint' of emissions.

Imagine if your house was surrounded by a moat containing petrol, and any passing motorist who carelessly tossed a cigarette butt from his window was your ongoing nightmare. Would not you one day get up and create a firebreak just so you could sleep at night? One family, the Sheahans did cull trees within 100m of their house, and were penalised with a $50,000 fine, yet their house was the only one in town left standing as the fires passed through.

 

Eucalyptus are called "gum" trees, because they are full of inflammable resin. Their sap automatically ignites above 40degC. It is part of the evolution of those trees to do so, because it stabilisies and fertilises the bush naturally. In Arnhem Land they still do burnoffs every year as they have always done. The Aboriginals know about sustainable farming, but no one goes to them for climate or land management advice. The burnoff was the traditional aboriginal way of having good pastures by the time the rains came. With the new nitrogen in the soil, grass grows better afterwards, the kangaroos ate the grass and the people ate the kangaroos.

 

Tight lunar combinations such as the three described can be proven to regularly come around about every 9 years. Solar cycles repeat at about 11-yr intervals. Weather in turn recycles about every decade, which reflects the 9-11 year sun/moon factor. It is within our living memory. There were dry summer conditions with intense heat in Canterbury in 2000/01, also a decade before that in 1991/92. We can even go a decade before that, to the devastating 1982 drought in the Waimea.

 

Hot temperatures may return near the end of February 2009 about 19th-25th being again far southern new moon, and between 5-11 March, again the close northern full moon, after which maximums should suddenly drop into autumn mode. Next summer, 2009/10 will be similar, with the combination of northern declination+P+FM arriving Dec 30-Jan2, so a hot New Years Eve will usher in the new year. Then in mid January we have again the hot far southern new moon, so that, too, may be the next fire-risk time, followed by the full moon triumvirate between January 27-30, which should bring a hot end to January. In February 2010, the hot spots may also be at the beginning, middle and end of month.

 

 

© Ken Ring 2009