Looking ahead to 2009, Ken Ring’s new book

November should be a cloudy month for the NI, but sunny for SI, with possible floods around F and N moons due to thawing of snows. Rivers that draw water from snowfields like the Waikato may be affected. December should be very dry for Hawkes Bay, only 3-4 wet days expected there, and sunnier for both islands. Xmas Day should be sunny throughout NI and top and E of SI, cloudy inland for Otago and Southland. His pick would be Auckland as Christchurch could be windy, and rain is likely for Wellington and Dunedin. For good New Year’s Day weather, Wellington or Dunedin may be preferable as Auckland might be a bit rough in the Gulf and Christchurch could be cloudy.

 

Temperatures may suddenly rise mid November 2008, resulting in thawing and flooding in the last week, and in December the first week should bring widespread rain.  With rather dry conditions from midDecember through to first week February, Northland, Auckland, Canterbury, Hawkes Bay and Bay of Plenty may be at fire risk. Gisborne could be mostly dry till second week in March. February should be unusually wet in the first half of the month and the last couple of days. March may be unusually dry. The hydrolakes may get little or no rain till April, but then quite steady amounts through April and May, then dry over June and July. Winter may go on for even longer than 2008 and August may again be a bad month for rain.

 

In 2009 wetter than average months for both islands may be February, April, August, September, and November. As to seasons, summer should be wetter, warmer and cloudier than average, with more westerly winds than usual. Autumn may be sunnier, drier and warmer, mostly westerlies with a NW swing for the west and central districts, and a SW/NW swing for the east coast. In the South Island, SWs may predominate. Winter for the NI as compared to average may be cloudier, drier and warmer, whilst for the SI, sunnier, wetter and slightly warmer, although July may be colder and the Shotover River may ice over. SWs may prevail. Next year a cooler spring for all is again forecast.

 

Overall there are no significantly long dry periods forecast for 2009.  March is likely to see the longest dry spell for the North Island with the first 3 weeks mostly rain free, but even so, a heavy rain spell is likely around the Full Moon (12th-13th).  Similarly the South Island can expect little rain in March, but most places can expect showers or light rain on at least one or two days of the month. The best time for a holiday in summer may be the 2nd-3rd weeks of January.

As to cyclones, in the last week of January an intense depression may form off New South Wales and move across to New Zealand by 28th, mostly affecting the South Island. Another system in the Coral Sea in the first week of February threatens New Zealand bringing widespread rain.  And around 22 February a southern depression may extend wet fronts across the far south. At the end of March a depression over New Caledonia may turn cyclonic and head toward New Zealand by 28th, but probable path is to head into the Tasman Sea around 29th and decay into a low before crossing New Zealand around 30th. Finally, in early April, another late cyclonic system is likely to form in the Coral Sea off the Queensland Coast but turn to a low by 10th before crossing New Zealand. Summarising, most systems forming north of the country should burn themselves out before arriving here to cause damage.

 

Rather than tropical cyclones, in 2009 floods may be a problem from the wet events that accompany king tides, and these may be, for the NI, around end of January, beginning of Feb, midMarch, third week in April, first week in May, around 24-25 June, last week of July, mid August, last week in September, second week in October, and in the second week of November. The SI may be affected by precipitation in much of January and February, the second week in April, the second week in May, around the end of June, the first and last weeks of July, the middle and last weeks of August, and the last week of September.

 

More details are in the almanac, on sale in most bookshops. The 2009 version also features daily entries for gardening by the moon, as well as fishing chances and moon phases. Price: $44.95