Queensland Outlook

QUEENSLAND

General for March and beyond
March: is overall expected to be much wetter throughout Carpentaria, North and Central Coast, with around 50-60% more rainfall and in the far southeast of the State expecting up to a possible three times more rainfall than is typical.  However, the Artesian Basin regions can anticipate a drier than average month with only around 1 third the average rainfall. After March, June to August may be the driest months for the State, but not for Cairns, which should enjoy a wetter year overall except for a dry November.

March First week
The first 2 weeks of the month is likely to see widespread rain throughout the south and southeast of the State, with up to 200-300mm of rainfall being recorded in a single 24 hour period in several places particularly around the Moreton, a few days after the Full Moon (1st) and mostly as the result of widespread thunderstorm activity possibly resulting in localized flooding particularly around the Bundaburg to Gympie area.

March Second week
Widespread rain spreads across the remainder of the State around the 2nd week of the month, with heavy falls of up to 40mm in a single 24 hour period possible in many places and with this likely to be the only significant wet spell for the Artesian basin regions.

March Third week
The third week is expected to bring a welcome dry spell across the southeast, allowing some possibly flooded areas from the previous couple of weeks to dry out.  The Carpentaria, Westlands, and Channel country in the southwest Artesian Basin, from Longreach westward, may find that this week marks the beginning of a prolonged dry spell in the region of 8-10 weeks with rain relief unlikely to arrive until the last week of May

March Last week
The last week of the month however, sees possible the return of heavy rain once ore to the southeastern districts of the State while the inland and Carpentaria continue to be mainly fine and dry.

Brisbane
Some good rain expected in March, with up to twice as much as average possibly being recorded by the end of the month possibly over 400mm for the month.  The heaviest rains can be expected as the result of thunderstorm activity around the 3rd-4th, (perhaps over 100mm in a single 24 hour period) and again around Perigee 27th-28th (again over 100mm) with both occasions falling close to the full moon.
After March, April is a wetter than average month, but this trend comes to an end, with May on average and apart from September all the rest of the year drier than normal.

Brisbane Temperatures:
Most days expected maxima expected to reach into the late 20’s at a fairly consistent level around 26-27 ° C, while overnight lows hovering around the 18-22 ° mark.
Cool spells: 26th-27th – associated with heavy rain and chance of thunderstorms
Hot spells: 1st – around the Full Moon with heat generated thunderstorms likely to bring some heavy downpours to this region.
Looking ahead: minimums should fall below 15C around mid May, below 10C after mid June, and below 5C from the last week of June to the end of September.

HAIL
Hail is likely in Brisbane in the first week of April, the first week of June, the second week of July and the second half of September.

SNOW
No snow is expected anywhere in QLD this year.

THUNDERSTORMS
These should continue to be frequent in north QLD until ceasing about mid April. Brisbane receives several in May, June and July.

CYCLONE POTENTIAL 
1st-5th – Cyclonic system in the Coral Sea off the North Coast around the Cape York Peninsular has an anticipated trajectory of heading southeast down the QLD coastline before disintegrating into a tropical low by around the 5th.  This event is likely to bring widespread and often heavy rain to all eastern districts of the State with the likelihood of localized flooding, particularly around the Sunshine and Fraser coastal areas and into the Moreton.
10th – A tropical low over the Fiji region is unlikely to move westward towards Australia.
17th – Another tropical low is expected to form around the Solomon Islands group and intensify slowly into a cyclonic system by around the 24th, when its trajectory is likely to have it moving in a southeast manner towards NZ where it is expected to pass the north of the North Island before dissipating by around the 26th. It is unlikely to affect the QLD State except for sending some showery fronts across the coastal fringes.
Beyond March: more cyclonic activity is likely in the first 10 days of April, bringing rain to many parts, and that should be all for the year until the next cyclonic system spawns in the week before Christmas.
 
FLOODING
March may see flooding in the Sunshine Coast region around the first and last weeks of the month, also in December around the McIntyre, Central and Southern inland rivers and Barcoo, but no other flooding is expected in other months in the State.

DAMS
Wivenhoe 
March – Good rains this are expected this month, with this month’s rain likely to be the best for the year in this area, so good use of this is wise to last out the drier months likely to come.  Heavy rainfall can be expected over several days of the first week, with up to 150mm likely during this spell, followed by a relatively drier spell for the next 3 weeks, broken only by some light shower activity around the New Moon (14th-16th).  Finally another wet spell can also be expected to bring some good heavy downpours and around 130mm of rain around Perigee/Full Moon, (27th-29th). 
After March:
The first weeks of both April and June hold promise of good rain, but little can be expected at other times. The dam may have to wait until December for the return of frequent falls.

© Ken Ring 2010