VICTORIA

March: Drier than average conditions dominate the State once more this month, continuing the drier trend from the end of summer with an expectation of around one third less rainfall than experienced in a typical March.  Overall, the Gippsland region can expect around 80% of its usual rainfall, the Southern Riverina, Apollo Bay and western parts around 25% of their usual rainfall, the Melbourne area around half its usual rainfall.

Most rainfall can be expected in two major wet phases, with the first one arriving in the build up to the New Moon(16^th), from around Northern Declination to the New Moon (12^th-16^th) when widespread scattered showers can be enjoyed in most places, and with the heaviest falls to the States southern coastal fringes.  The second wet phase is expected to arrive with the 1^st Quarter(23^rd) and bring persistent light rain days from the 23^rd until the end of the month.  Thunderstorms can be expected around the New Moon and Full Moon periods (14^th-16^th and again, 28^th-31^st).

Winds – may be a problem to the Gippsland and southeast coastal fringes around the 17^th-18^th as an intense depression drops southward into the southern Tasman Sea.

Melbourne

Another drier than average month can be expected again with only around half the usual rainfall for March expected.  Rainfall quantities are not expected to exceed 5mm in any single 24 hour period, with showery days likely around the 7^th, 13^th-17^th and 24^th-27^th. 

Temperatures

Maximum temperatures are likely to fluctuate between the lower 20’s to the early 30’s this month while overnight lows may reach into single figures on several occasions and then up into the early 20’s a few days later.

Cool spells: 1^st-2^nd, 5^th-9^th, 17^th-19^th, 25^th-31^st (coldest overnight lows possibly down as far as 7-9°C being recorded around the end of the first week of the month).

Hot spells: 3^rd-4^th, 10^th-13^th, 15t-16^th, 20^th-24^th (hottest spell of the month, with daily maxima possibly up to mid 30's).

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SOUTH AUSTRALIA

March: While overall this month may result in wetter than average conditions in most places, this is likely to be the result of a single widespread wet phase expected during the 2^nd week of the month, finally breaking the summer trend of drought conditions, while the remainder of March returning to mostly fine and dry.  During this significant wet spell, (10^th-16^th) rainfall quantities may be heavy enough to bring localized flooding particularly around the Eyre Peninsular, Spencer Gulf districts and Adelaide Ranges foothills, with some towns possibly recording between 50-90mm in a single 24 hour period and result in above average rainfall results for the month in most places, including up to 5-7 times more rainfall than average around the Spencer Gulf areas. 

Some lighter showers can be expected around the southeast districts in the build up to Perigee and Full Moon, 23^rd-27^th, and strong winds around the 19^th, may bring some problems to coastal regions of the southeast of the State.

Adelaide

Most rainfall can be expected during two wet phases this month, the first around the 12^th-16^th, (up to 25mm being recorded in this spell), and again around the 27^th-28^th.   There may be plenty of sunny days, with cloudier skies associated with the showery spells. 

Temperatures

Most days can expect to record maximum temperatures around the mid to upper 20’s this month, with isolated peaks into the 30’s.  Lows are expected to average around the mid to lower teens, although the first of the single digit overnight lows is likely to arrive at the end of the month. 

Cool spells: (when temperature maximums are expected to only reach into the mid-lower 20’s) – 5^th-8^th, 12^th-16^th, 27^th-29^th with the coolest spell expected to be around the new Moon, (14^th-16^th) when thunderstorm activity is also expected to bring the greatest rainfall expectation for this month in Adelaide.

Hot spells: (when temperature maximums are expected to reach into the 30’s) - 4^th, 10^th-11^th, 17^th, 21^st-24^th (peaking into the upper 30’s during this spell)

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WESTERN AUSTRALIA

To the North of the State:

March: A drier than average month is likely, with only around half of its usual rainfall expected to be recorded in the Kimberley’s region and seriously drier than average conditions in the De Grey, (where only 7% of its usual rainfall is likely). 

While the coastal fringe of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf region can expect regular rain days throughout the month, overall results are still expected to follow the trend of the rest of the northern half of the State, and still be drier than average by around a third less rainfall than normal. 

Most rainfall activity this month in the north of the State is likely to be the occasional brief showery day, mostly around the first week of the month and again around the 3^rd week, with the most rain likely to be recorded in the first few days of the month.  There may be some good rains along the Fortescue Ranges and the Gascoyne around Perigee/Full Moon, 27^th-30^th.

CYCLONE POTENTIAL WATCH

1^st-3^rd – A tropical low in the Indian Ocean just off the De Grey may threaten to turn cyclonic but is more likely to remain a deep low before heading west further into the Ocean and disintegrating by around the 3^rd.  However, it may cause some strong winds to flow across the southern half of the State.

14^th-16^th – A deep low may intensify and threaten to turn into a cyclonic system over the De Grey to Kimberleys, but overall it is more likely to continue to remain a deep low.  However, once more, strong winds can be expected across the southern half of the State in the trough between this northern low and another one crosses the southern coastal parts of the State.

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To the South of the State: 

March: While the northern half of the State is expected to suffer from serious rainfall deficiencies, the southern half of the State can expect the opposite, with increased above average rainfall likely to be recorded in most places throughout the Pilbara, SW Coast, South Coast and in the South East regions, including many places likely to receive up to twice as much rain than usual, including very large rainfall measurements possible around the south coast fringe areas (up to 600% more rainfall than average or around 250mm compared to the March average of around 92mm for Norseman, and Esperance around 180mm compared to the average 29mm).

Most of this month will be rain free, until around the 23^rd-31^st, (from 1^st Quarter – 23rd to Full Moon -30th, and including over Perigee – 28^th) when widespread and sometimes heavy rain can be expected, including associated with thunderstorm activity around the end of the last week. 

Perth

A dry month is expected with very little rainfall likely to be recorded, but overall totals around the average for this time of year, or around 25-30mm in total with most of this rainfall being recorded in the last week of the month, particularly around the Full Moon (30^th). 

Temperatures:

Cool spells:  14^th-15^th, 25^th-27^th, 30^th-31^st, with maximum temperatures expected in the mid to upper 20’s and overnight lows in the upper teens, with the coolest night likely around the New Moon.

Hot spells: 1^st 10 days of the month, 16^th-19^th, 22^nd-23^rd, on all occasions when most of these days will record into the lower 30’s with temperatures peaking around the 8^th-9^th Southern Declination.

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NORTHERN TERRITORIES

March: Overall, the State can expect a much drier than average month, with most regions recording below average rainfall – the Arnhem drier by around 12%, Darwin-Daly by around 24%, Barkly by around 22% and the Alice Springs region considerably drier by around 89%, where some places, such as Alice itself, and the Curtin Springs unlikely to receive any rain at all.  Only the coastal regions around the Top End can expect above average rainfall this month, and those around the coastal regions of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

Monsoonal rains can be expected on a regular basis however, throughout this month over the Top End, Barkly and northern parts of the Victoria River, with particularly heavy rain expected throughout the first week, before petering out to lesser amounts as the month progresses.  A further heavy rain spell in these regions can also be expected around the 1^st Quarter, (21^st-25^th). 

Very little rainfall however, can be expected to reach into the southern parts of the State this month, with several places unlikely to record any rainfall for March.

Darwin

March: Darwin itself can expect to follow the trend of a drier than average March with around 37% less rainfall than average being recorded.  Heavy rain days are expected regularly throughout the second week, and again at the end of the second week, around the 7^th-14^th, 19^th-21^st and lastly 26^th-30^th, with lighter rain days scattered throughout the month on a regular basis.

Temperatures

Daily maximums likely to be fairly consistent this month in the early 30’s, and overnight lows in the mid 20’s.  Max high expected around the New Moon (16^th), and the coolest overnights expected during the first week, again just prior to the New Moon and around 1^st Quarter / Northern Declination, but with temperatures not expected to drop below 23°C.

CYCLONE POTENTIAL WATCH

The NT is unlikely to be threatened by any potential cyclonic systems this month.

1^st – Cyclonic system in the Coral Sea near QLD’s Cape York Peninsular has an anticipated trajectory of heading east way from the NT.

14^th-16^th – A cyclonic system may develop over WA’s De Grey to Kimberleys but again its anticipated trajectory is unlikely threaten the NT and may disintegrate into a tropical low and stall over northern WA.

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TASMANIA

March: While some good showery spells come to the State this month, overall it is expected to be considerably less than average, with all regions likely to record below average rainfalls for the month, including some areas drier by up to 90%, although most places can expect to receive around a quarter of the average rainfall for a typical March. 

A wet spell around the western parts can be expected from around the 5^th-9^th, with some isolated heavy falls likely in the western highlands and lighter patchy showers extending briefly into the southeast. 

The next wet spell that is expected to flow across all regions in the State can be anticipated around the New Moon (14^th-18^th), with widespread light showers in most places, sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms.

Finally, the last week of the month sees another wet spell coming to the State, with most rainfall likely to fall again in the western highlands and lighter patchy showers extending to most other places.  This wet spell, in the build up to the Full Moon and Perigee, is likely to see the heaviest falls of the month, and again is expected to be associated with thunderstorm activity.

Winds: may be damaging around the 13^th-17^th

Hobart

March: The dry trend experienced across the State, also continues again this month here, with very little rainfall of any significance expected once more, with the overall expectation of only around 3-5mm in total, compared to the average 37mm for March, or around 90% drier than normal.

The “wettest” spell is expected around the 6^th, with some more isolated drizzle days around the New Moon (14^th-16^th) and again a further promise of rain around the 26^th-27^th, which is unlikely to eventuate into anything more than some light drizzles.

Plenty of sun will dominate the first 10 days of the month and again from around the New Moon to First Quarter (15^th-23^rd).  Cloudy to overcast conditions around the end of the second week will bring the greatest hope for rain, but overall less than 1mm is anticipated.  The last week of the month sees more cloudier days. 

Temperatures

Maximum temperatures are likely to fluctuate between the upper teens to early 20’s, peaking into the upper 20’s around the New Moon.  Overnight lows may drop into single digits several times this month.

Cool spells: 5^th-9^th, (coolest spell for the month), 13^th, 23^rd, 25^th-26^th, 31^st

Hot spells: 4^th, 11^th-12^th, 14^th-17^th, 21^st (possibly hottest day this month, peaking into the early 30’s)

DAMS

NT – Darwin River Dam –

March – Monsoonal conditions continue to bring good rains to this region, with slightly more expected than last month, or around 180-200mm for the month.  Heavy rain can be expected around the 3^rd, 7^th, 20^th and 23^rd, with rain being recorded in regular rain spells throughout the month.

QLD – Wivenhoe –

March – Good rains this are expected to bring around 300mm of rainfall for the month here, with this month’s rain likely to be the best for the year in this area, so good use of this is wise to last out the drier months likely to come.  Heavy rainfall can be expected over several days of the first week, with up to 150mm likely during this spell, followed by a relatively drier spell for the next 3 weeks, broken only by some light shower activity around the New Moon (14^th-16^th).  Finally another wet spell can also be expected to bring some good heavy downpours and around 130mm of rain around Perigee/Full Moon, (27^th-29^th). 

NSW – Warragamba –

March – much less rain can be expected this month than last month, with only around 40-50mm in total, compared to last months expectation of nearly 200mm.  Rain can be anticipated around the end of the first week and the start of the 3^rd week, and with only the promise of rain tempting in the last week of the month, but recorded quantities mostly unlikely.  The heaviest rains can be expected around the New Moon (15^th-16^th), when up to 30mm may be recorded over a couple of days. 

NSW – Wyangala –

March – A similar rain pattern to Warragamba can also be expected here, with wet spells likely around the end of the first week of the month and again around the New Moon.  Total rainfall expectations are slightly higher than Warragamba, with the chance of up to 70-80mm being the rainfall totals for the month but with most of this likely to be recorded in a single heavy rain wet spell at the New Moon (15^th-16^th). 

VIC – Silvan –

March – A similar quantity of rain can be expected this month as receive in February with around 40mm in total.  No significant rain days can be anticipated, with only light isolated showers spread frequently over the month, and the heaviest rain expected around the end of the 2^nd week, when up to 20mm may be measured during this spell.

TAS – Lake Margaret –

March – Around 80-90mm of rain can be expected this month, the result of 3 main wet spells.  The first rainy spell can be expected toward the end of the first week of the month, the second, a lighter showery spell around the New Moon, and more persistent showery days extending from around the 23^rd to the end of the month, with a couple of heavy rain days expected around the 5^th and 31^st.

SA – Happy Valley –

March – an overall expectation of around 70-80mm of rainfall can be expected here this month, with most rain occurring in the 2^nd week of the month, from around the 12^th-16^th, ending at the New Moon (16^th).  Some further light showers may also be expected around the 26^th-27^th, and other than these two wet spells, dry conditions dominate.

WA – Wungong

March – Dry throughout the month with the only rains expected in the final week when up to 50mm of rain may be recorded for the total month, all falling within the last couple of days including a heavy downpour day likely around the Full Moon, possibly as a result of thunderstorm activity.

© Ken Ring 2010