How did we do?

Cyclones
As there are cyclones at the moment happening in the region, let's look at those. Last week on these blogs we warned of them coming around now. Looking at the Australian almanac isobarics we're 3 days out with the timing of the one forming over New Caledonia - we've got it on the isobaric maps for Australia starting to form on the 16th/17th.  And the Fiji one is just a low over them on the 10th-11th.
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=112029&fm=psp,tsf
But on the NZ isobaric maps for Mar 2010, we've got the one over New Caledonia (check pages 138 isobaric maps onwards right through to the 28th March in NZ Almanac) - having started its approach there back on the 10th, crossing New Caledonia on the 14th and 19th March off the west coast of the North Island where it turns into a low by the 20th as it crosses Northland. And the Fiji cyclonic system doesn't start appearing on the NZ isobarics until the 17th, crossing Fiji and hitting New Caledonia by the 21st and then moving onto QLD by the 27th
In the Australian Almanac (p132) one of these cyclones is mentioned for QLD 11th-18th, and again 19th-25th as the Fiji cyclone, and again wind damage to QLD from tropical cyclone on 26th-27th including flooding.
In the NZ Almanac (p119) for March monthly summary, on the 18th-24th we mention that warm northerlies may preceed a depression (formerly a tropical cyclone).

Winds in Wellington
You'll find that entry in the NZ Almanac on p137. You'll also find the big high in the west Tasman on the isobaric maps of 12 March. 

So, in both the NZ and Aust Almanacs we managed to get the two cyclonic systems for March, although timing slightly out and location of them in reverse a bit. We remind readers that the 2010 almanacs were written two years ago, to comply with publishers' timetables, and we will not ever be 100% accurate because the method is best suited to describe general trends, so 3-4 day windows is the best we can hope for. Given those claims it would be hard to argue that we did not predict current events. That bodes well for the forecasts for the rest of the year - more cyclones to come, a cold winter in NZ, and trouble for many of our growers around the end of the year, which may significantly raise the price of fruit and vegetables over January 2011.

 

Australia - Previous
These predictions for NSW were made in a radio interview on Radio 2UE, the George and Paul Show, on 28 December 2009. The trends and predictions of weather events to come were quoted from the pages of the Predict Weather Almanac for Australia 2010(released in late November 2009) 
Now, nearly 4 months on, we can look back at what actually did occur. The actuals are highlighted in blue. All temperatures and rain records for Australia are verifiable here
 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/

January:
After good Dec rain, Jan may be dry by comparison, then Feb a wet month (Jan was dry, but Feb had far more rain than normal)
Rain on Sydney New Years Day(yes), then 11th, 14th-15th (yes on 14th. 13mm was highest amount for month)
Rain on 19th-21st probably as a result of thunderstorm activity and may bring some localised flooding (rain arrived on 24th).
8th-12th pockets of heavy rain expected as low pressure dip from the monsoonal trough flows through State.(heavy rain came on 14th)
20th-21st widespread and sometimes heavy rain  from an anticyclonic system over State. (rain came on 24th)
N half of NSW need care water management, no significant rain expected, light patchy stuff 7th and 10th (yes it rained in Armidale on 7th, 10mm)
Possibly some thunderstorm activity around 19th, (yes, on 17th)
best chance for rain around 31st (yes, on 29th).
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February, still NSW focus:
Dry for much of the first half, (no, wetter in the first half)
Then wet in the third week (yes)
There's 2 rain days around 19th-20th; possible rain in excess of 100mm each day (happened further west - Broken Hill got about 20mm on the 22nd)
3rd-4th thunderstorms (yes) 
14th-24th troughs bring widespread rain flooding potential.(happened 13th-15th) 
100-200mm Sydney and Illawarra 20th-21st.(happened about a week before)
Tides should be increased enough between 14th-21st to bring at least some flooding.(yes)
So rains around Sydney should be MORE frequent than average in February(yes),
2nd-4th some heavy downpours and thunderstorms likely,(yes) and between 14th-17th (yes) Thunderstorms are likely to bring some heavy downpours and possible hail around 19th-22nd (no, didn't happen)
The wet spell around the 14th-22nd with some heavy rain and flooding in places across the State, means Valentine Day plans may possibly getting washed out for some (yes).  A lot of it should be inland,(yes) in particular around Broken Hill,(yes, 12th-14th) , and heavy downpours Penrith to Woollongong, maybe 100-150mm over 24 hours, again with localised flooding (Penrith received it between 3rd-8th and 13th-14th). 
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TEMPERATURES
The next warmest for the summer will be around the end of January (temperatures reached 41C on 23rd), then some warm temps in the first half and at the end of February (reached 37C on 12th).
After the first week in March autumn temps will come suddenly (Sydney minimums were 22.6C on the 8th and 16.2C on the 14th, a drop of 6C in a week).

HOTTEST
1. For the first few days of New Year. heat will last for a few days after New Year until around the 5th, so for about 5 days. (Temperatures on the 9th reached 32C)
2. Third week in January to 1st February, which means that heat should last for about two weeks. (The 23rd of Jan reached 41C)
3. Last week of February and into 1st week of March, about one week of extreme heat. (The 22nd of Feb reached 35C)
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OVERALL
Overall the summer will be WETTER than average for the state and also for Sydney.(yes)

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Perhaps the above puts in good stead the rest of the 2UE interview for 2010 trends

Autumn should be overall DRIER than average, even though a bit of rain coming in April.
Winter, should be average to DRIER, even though Sydney getting good rain in July.
Spring will be an AVERAGE season overall, because even though Sept and Oct should be dry, possible good rain coming in November.
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