Gold Coast Outlook

Easter 2nd – 5th April and Beyond
Cyclone Potential from this point on…
March 17th – A tropical has formed into a cyclonic system over the Solomon Islands group is heading southwest into the Coral Sea at the moment.  Its eventual expected trajectory is likely to have it moving in a southeast manner towards NZ where it is expected to pass the north of the North Island before dissipating by around the 26th.  It is unlikely to affect the QLD State to its full potential except for sending some wet fronts and strong winds across the coastal fringes mostly to the North Coast over the next few days, but up to 200mm may be recorded around the MacKay region from this event causing flooding to the local regions along the North coast and into the local river systems.
The moon is going the wrong way at the moment for the potential for truly destructive weather to occur. When the moon is crossing the equator going northwards which it is doing right now, there is less effect. A clockwise-rotating cyclonic system fighting a northerly influence mainly wants to go east so sits where it is until the moon's direction changes. When the moon comes southwards there will be greater effect, a repeat of what happened in the first and last weeks of January, the first 10 days of Feb and  the first week of March, when the Gold Coast got big rainfalls. It was no coincidence that these were the times when the full moon was heading southward of the equator. Easter comes as the moon is again full and coming south. The cyclonic systems will then be able to affect the Queensland coast again, as a south flow on a clockwise rotation tends to shifts it west. For a live demonstration of this, see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaIyoPP5KMM

As to what will the cyclone may do, check out the free Isobaric Weather Maps for Australia Lookahead 18 March - 8 April.

http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ShopProducts.aspx?ID=3

Update post of 18th, the cyclone is heading east but a rainband is going west. Meanwhile another system is due to form after the 25th over northern QLD.

Update post of 22nd: Now with the benefit of hindsight it appears the rainband did make it back to the QLD coast, crossing as we said at Mackay. As soon as it hit land it lost strength and by daybreak was all but over (the BoM had predicted it to intensify).

Easter onward
Good Friday (2nd April) may see another cyclonic system developing over the Solomons, bringing strong winds with damage potential to the Gold Coast around the end of Easter, particularly around the 4th and into the next week, associated with heavy rain including flooding potential throughout the next week, thunderstorms with hail potential from the 7th-13th, notably around the 7th-9th for hail, but clearing by the end of the second week of the month.  Up to 100mm of rainfall could be recorded over a few days around the Moreton and Gold Coast localities. 
Easter temperatures are expected to be around 16-22° C at night and reaching daily maximas of around 25-29°C.

Autumn is expected to be wetter than average with March possibly recording up to 3 times more rainfall than average by the end of the month, April is looking to be wetter by around 20-25% more than average and May sees the region once more wetter than average, with the potential for almost twice average rain, wetter by around 80-85%.
Winter however, enters into a drier than average spell, with each month likely to be drier by around a third to average.
Spring may start on a wetter than average note, before moving into drier than average conditions mid spring and at the end of spring.

April Temperatures:
Most days expected maxima expected to reach into the late 20’s at a fairly consistent level around 24-29° C, while overnight lows may hover around the 16-21°C mark and it isn’t until the last week of April that temperatures can be expected to drop to overnight lows below 17°C, but still not lower than 15°C.
Cool spells: after the New Moon (15th April) onwards temperatures are expected to drop by around 1-3°C maxima and minima for the remainder of the month.
Hot spells: remain similar to March throughout the first couple of weeks of the month, up until the New Moon, but having possible peak temperatures around the 1st-2nd and 8th-9th, with the second peak likely to stimulate thunderstorm activity and be a result of a warm airflow bought down along the QLD coast by the tropical cyclone that is expected to be affecting this region around the end of the second week.

What happens in the Coral Sea and Queensland also affects NSW and regions across the Great Divide. If easterlies are strong enough they will carry rain to the Interior. 2010 brings increased cyclonic activity, and 2011 even more so, which is good news for the country. The reason is that the perigeal moon is once again hovering around equatorial latitudes, part of the 8.85-yr lunar apsidal cycle. Every 4-yrs come stronger cyclone periods, lasting for a couple of years.