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Best NZ holiday weather days

FRIDAY DECEMBER 24, 2010

 

COOK ISLANDS

Fine til 1 January, then driest time 13-31 January.

 

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FIJI

Fine 1-9 January and 14 January -25 February

 

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NORTHLAND

Kaitaia: no heavy rain until 18 February

Kaikohe: no double digit rain until end of February

Dargaville: heavy rain 24 January, only 5 rain days until then

Russell: good weather until 17 February

Kerikeri: mostly fine until 10 January

Whangarei: good weather until 22 January

Maungaturoto/Mangawai: good Xmas day until 24 January

 

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AUCKLAND

Whangaparoa: mainly dry until the end of January

Auckland, mostly fine from 25 December - 22 January, (just 2-3 rain days expected)

Waiheke: mostly dry until 10 January, best holiday weather 28 January - 20 February

Waiuku: mostly good until 4 January

 

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COROMANDEL

Thames; mostly good until 22 January, best 11-21 January, also 26 January - 20 February

Coromandel: good weather until 9 January, best 11-21 January, also 26 January - 9 February

Tairua: good weather until 20 February

Whitianga: good weather until 12 February

 

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WAIKATO

Hamilton: mostly dry until 9 January, rain 23 January then mostly dry until 2 March

 

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BAY OF PLENTY

Katikati: no major unsettled weather until first week March

Waihi: good weather until 12 February

Whangamata: good weather until March

Tauranga: good weather until 2 March

Rotorua: good weather until 9 January, best 15 January -1 March

Whakatane: good weather until 9 January

Opotiki: good weather until 4 January

 

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CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND

Central  Plateau: rain on 30 December

Taupo: good weather until 9 January, best weather first half March

 

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HAWKES BAY

Gisborne: rain on 30 December, best weather second half of January, fine 28 January -10 February, also 14-20 February.

Hastings: rain on 30 December, mostly dry 15-22 January, also 28 January -20 February

Hicks Bay: rain on 30 December, then little or none until 13 January

 

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MANAWATU

Feilding: mostly dry until 28 December, also (just 3 rain days) 27 January -1 March

Palmerston North: best weather 27 January – 4 February, also 14 February – 1 March

 

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WAIRARAPA

Levin: rain on 30 December, best weather 27 January – 8 February

Dannevirke: rain on 29 December, best weather 15 January – 9 February

Paraparaumu: rain on 30 December, best weather in second half of February

Wellington: rain on 29 December, best weather 25 January -10 February, also 14 February - 1 March

 

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NORTH ISLAND WEST COAST

Raglan: good weather until 9 January, best 25 January – 4 February, also 3 - 14 March

New Plymouth: good weather until 7 January, best time throughout second half February

Wanganui: good weather until 9 January

 

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SOUTH ISLAND

 

TOP

Takaka: good till 3 January

Nelson: 2 rain days now to 14 January

Blenheim: best weather, (only 2 rain days) 25 January - 28 February, also 7 - 21 March

Motueka: rain on 3 January, driest 19 January - 1 March

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WEST COAST

Westport: rain on 29 December

Greymouth: rain on 28 December, mostly clear 25 February – 2 March

Haast: dry until 2 January

 

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CANTERBURY

Cheviot: wet 28 December, fine second half January

Kaikoura: first big rain first week March

Christchurch: best weather 25 January - 4 February and 13 - 20 February

Hanmer; good weather until 28 December, best period 25 January – 9 February

Ashburton: rain 28 December, best period 20 January - 4 February, also (just 1 rain day) between 25 February – 25 March

Timaru: rain 28 December, mainly dry 23 February – 11 April

 

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OTAGO

Oamaru: rain on 28 December, best weather 25 February – 12 March

Queenstown: mostly good until 9 January, best weather 16 February – 12 March

Te Anau:  good weather until 6 January

Dunedin: doesn't clear for more than a few days until 15 February – 6 March

Balclutha: best weather (1 rain day) 16 February - 6 March

Cromwell: rain on 28 December

 

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CHATHAMS

3-8 January mostly fine, also (3 light rain days) 13 January - 4 February

 

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SOUTHLAND

Gore: mostly clear 16 February – 28 March

Puysegur: mostly clear 20 February – 11 March, and 6 – 14 April

Invercargill: mostly clear 18 February – 12 March

 

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DATES FOR INCREASED EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL

20 February, 19- 22 March and 18 April.. 

 

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WEATHER-THINGS TO  THINK ABOUT OVER THE BREAK

 

1. forget La Nina
The talk of La Nina is mostly nonsense. It was called the Trade Winds when I was in Standard 3, and easterlies blowing west along the equatorial band was always said to be the normal situation. By changing the name in recent times scientists have qualified for new research funding, as if it is a new weather phenomenon that needs scrutiny. But La Nina can hardly be an anomaly when the official forecasters have said it will bring both dry and wet conditions over summer. Yeah, right - that is normal for NZ.


2. watch out for very hot days
There will be some hot spells, like the end of this month, and the beginning and end of January. Don't go to Brisbane after Xmas -  SE QLD will be getting a heat wave. Some places, like Gisborne, Chch and S Cant should get over 30°C in the last weeks of Jan and February, even Timaru, Tekapo and maybe Queenstown. January and December may be cloudier than normal, but expect average sunshine in the other months. The news stories in 2011 will probably be tropical cyclones in the Pacific, returning after an absence, about 12 forming in all, with about half reaching and affecting parts of NZ, mainly with wind. The drought will also fill the pages of newspapers, with speculations of relief right up to the rain I expect to arrive in May.


3. it won't be all hot
We’ve got some southwesterlies kicking in now and they’ll go through now for most of January and February. It’ll mean a cooler than average month, and no long runs of hot weather. The warmest times in summer are always around full moon to last quarter, so keep your eye on the moon size for your guide as to when things will heat up. But the sun is still inactive, which is why it's so cold in Europe. If you are contemplating going to Ireland, February won't be too bad. If you're going to Australia, avoid March, because that will be the cyclone month.


4. prepare, because droughts should continue
Despite the pre-Xmas rain the drought should continue in the east of Northland through January, then shift to the west of Northland in February and all of Northland for March and April. Greater Auckland and western BoP also get dry conditions in January as do Rotorua, Taupo and mid and S Canterbury. By February drought spreads to all of BoP, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Waikato, Central Plateau, Taranaki, parts of the lower NI, also the top of the SI to Kaikoura. In March dryness continues in Northland and Greater Auckland, but the rest of the NI gets relief, while the SI goes dry Canterbury southwards. Rain relief in May will leave only eastern BoP and the far south still dry. So drought should go all summer, all autumn, and winter will also be drier just about everywhere. Only late autumn, specifically May and June could be wetter than average for the country, with the rest of the months drier than average. There should be relief rains for Northland in May, June, Sept, Oct and Nov. For other districts most rain comes March to June, with all the other months drier than average.


5. farmers should get grain in
June brings the last rains for a while. Whangarei and Gisborne/Hawkes Bay start to dry out in the NI, and Canterbury and coastal Otago in the SI.  Then a winter drought begins, with July and August in 2011 much drier for all districts. In Sept and Oct the BoP may get hit hardest by winter dryness, while the rest of the regions may not fare as badly. Snow may come much later in the season, which may hurt SI operators.  In November Taranaki may be talking about drought, also much of the SI, and in December, Northland through to the BoP are once again significantly dry.

 

For more information write to   ken@predictweather.com

 

© Ken Ring 2010


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