21 May - are you all packed?

The media seem to be at it again

One radio station in Auckland, was it Hauraki? has said the the "moon man" has predicted the end of the world on 21 May. This is ludicrous, and stands alongside the media nonsense that has Ken Ring hiding in secret locations, claiming continuing death threats, seeking medical help for depressions, reading cats paws for a living, practising astrology, living in Spain, plotting to spread terror, pestering hospital children as a clown, and goodness knows what else. It was started by John Campbell in the Campbell Live show . The next morning at the rude hour of 7.25am Campbell rang me with his so-called apology after which, for the whole week, he whipped the public into a state of fear. This was picked up by NZ media, even Jim Mora of National Radio, who said I was the man “scaring Christchurch people with his predictions and making them flee the city”.  By the time bland-master Mora steps in, everyone and his dog are doing it, including politicians, Skeptic groups, newspapers and talkback stations, all eager to increase ratings and public profiles.

Why the media distort truth

So why all the fuss?  It is interesting in itself, because it exposes the ugly underbelly of the ratings-driven media.  Just after the 4 September Christchurch 7.1mag earthquake I posted a tweet that said  "The Christchurch earthquake was predictable..more coming in 6 months"  In other words to expect another destructive earthquake event in Christchurch in about 6 month's time. I posted this so that people would get kitted-up well ahead. I had also felt obliged to post it because GNS had put a press release out http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/canterbury-earthquake/4142032/What-lies-beneath within a few days of the 7.1, saying there was nothing on the horizon, that the 7.1-mag was a one-off. Quote:  "Dr Kelvin Berryman stated that the fault lines under the Lyttelton Tunnel were too small to worry about and there would not be another damaging fault for 200-600 years."  I felt this was not only untrue but alarming as it would have spread complacency about something big that I felt sure lay ahead. Readers will find that this link has been mysteriously pulled from the internet. It disappeared on 28 February, the morning of the Campbell Live show.  Why?  Was it because in fact one happened, in, not 200 years but 5 months - the 6.3 on 22 Feb. Given that I claim 80-85% accuracy with my moon-method, which is 2.5 months per year possibly off, this prediction was within range.

On 14 February I put out out another tweet saying to expect something very big in about a week's time. "Potential earthquake time for the planet between 15th-25th, especially 18th for Christchurch, +/- about 3 days. www.predictweather.com"  In hindsight, given the error factor, this, too, proved reasonably accurate, and caused some to stay home from work that day, or out of the CBD.

By then people were starting to take notice of the moon method. This was threatening to the media, who like to have monopoly over telling us all what happens so that people buy the newspapers. If someone comes along and steals their thunder several weeks beforehand, then such a person becomes a hunted enemy. It also threatens the political process, because politicians like to tell people what to think, believe and when to act, whether it means getting prepared for something or deciding when to stay or leave, because the economy of a city may suffer when everyone downs tools and has a day off.  Perhaps this is why Dr Nick Smith called for me to be "legally accountable" on 20 March, and why Sir Peter Gluckman said "only qualified people should comment on earthquake prediction", and why the head of Gluckman's office, Dr Beedle, wrote (to a member of my FB page)

"Dear Mrs Tucker,

Thank you for your email.  We have engaged with Mr Ring previously..his “predictions” have no scientific basis..the only tool we have to discourage his activities is public derision.

Regards

Dr Alan S. Beedle

Chief of Staff

Office of the Prime Minister's Science Advisory Committee"

This indicates NZ politicians intend to use the media to witchhunt someone.

My so-called predictions, which are only opinions, also threaten the scientific community, whose subscribers include university-stocked sceptics groups, rival weather forecast suppliers like WeatherWatch, NIWA, Sillybeliefs and the Greens, members of which include the authors of global warming books. When the media got wind of the suggestion on my website that 20 March was set for another seismic event, there was widespread misquoting. In fact I never said the 20 March would offer a 7+mag event in Christchurch - I said the date would be another for the history books because the Moon was closest to Earth for 19 years, and a 7+ event was highly likely somewhere on the globe. Actually within a week Japan had the worst tsunami ever, indeed the date was one for the history books. NZ, too, had a 7-mag event that day 20 March, but GNS appear to have downgraded it within hours to a 5.1. (Luckily I have the screenshot of both).

Even previously wellbalanced media have climbed aboard the beatup train, and still seek every opportunity to have a beatup. The NZ Herald asked me for an interview 3-days ago, about where I was supposed to be "hiding". Last week New Idea Magazine wanted the exclusive on the "death threats". Today the National Business Review’s Chris Keall posted this story headlined “Ken Ring not welcome at Christchurch TED event”. Ken Ring, one of the speakers at TEDxAuckland, is not on the agenda for the Christchurch event. The organisers didn't want to comment further, but the reasons are reasonably obvious). It appears that the TEDX series is continuing in Christchurch this year. Last year I was one of the speaker line-up and was well reviewed. The NBR made it sound as if I am being singled out for non-inclusion at Christchurch. The fact that not any of the 2010 Auckland speaker line up is on the Christchurch programme is not considered worth a mention. That is the very way magazines like the NBR, still petulant after I politely refused pre 20 March to write a whole free editorial for them, attempt to get their own back. Campbell also tried to get his own back after I asked him, pre-programme, to stop spreading the lie that there was no international science correlating moon/earthquake links.

21 May – what will happen?

This event does indeed see an alignment of planets. But planetary alignment, also called conjunctions, does not necessarily cause earthquakes or destruction. The world's extreme weather, including earthquakes is mostly controlled by energy from the Sun, and the timing is mostly brought about by the Moon's position. The Moon contributes, alone, about 80% of the world's weather by its effect on the tide of the Atmosphere, and by the movement and size of the seatides, which in turn influence barometric pressures. The Moon and Sun together provide enough pressures and stresses on the mass of the Earth and its magnetic field to effect sudden changes in density beneath ground that seek release above ground.

That some guy predicts the end of the world based on biblical references should not worry anyone. We are all adults, capable of making informed decisions based on available information. If someone told you that one of the Enid Blyton Noddy books predicted the end of the world in 2011, would you believe it? Today, with the internet and search engines, all information is available. The beauty of the internet is that common people, not just our high-priest academics with degrees, can have ideas and opinions, formed from years of private study. To have a baby doctor declaring on earthquakes (“on 20 March one will not occur”), means that anyone is free to comment on any subject, regardless of what they specialised in at university. We should accept all such opinions with a grain of salt, and make up our own minds. It is both our choice on how to react, and whether or not to let such a prediction threaten us. As to what will or won’t happen, no one can say. My view is that we can give opinions if we state the reasoning behind that opinion, which is what I try to do with every list of dates that I expect some weather event to occur around.

Since the talk is of a planetary alignment, this ropes in the ancient astrology of Vedic, Persian and Asian cultures that says planets may have an effect on the Earth’s environment. These days this is called astro-meteorology. The only inner planets in any line of significance  on 21 May appear to be Venus, Mercury and Mars. The outer planets are squaring, which means more general application over a wider period. For 21 May the interpretations for NZ based on longitude and latitude would have gone something like this: Sun in Taurus=cool conditions, Moon in Capricorn=adding to coolness, Mercury conjuncts Mars=turbulent air, Mercury conjuncts Venus=southerlies, Venus conjucts Mars=cold enough for snow, Moon conjuncts Pluto= amplifies the effects of the Moon, Sun squares Neptune=windy, cold, Moon squares Saturn=cold weather, Uranus squares Pluto=high cold winds, Saturn squares Pluto=potential for windy storm, Moon squares Jupiter=moderating effect on the Moon.

There is, then, nothing destructive for NZ indicated by this except a continuation of early wintry cold conditions, anticyclonic as already forecast in our almanac on p200 using the Moon-method of longrange forecasting (outlined in our book The Lunar Code) and now within range of the NZ Metservice radar. Mostly dry weather is expected, but with a wind chill factor.

So unless cooler temperatures frighten the life out of you, there is nothing to fear come 21 May.

The answers?

So who do we turn to for balanced reporting? Well, not the national papers, radio shows or TV. Even TV1 couldn’t resist interviewing scientists prepared to rubbish me in my absence without my right of reply. NewstalkZB’s Leighton Smith has been one of the few totally fair hosts, also Karen Hay of RadioLive and Geoff Thomas of RadioB Sport. Willie and JT have displayed some support. Most of the rest, spreaders of discontent and intolerance are not worthy of being called journalists. And when it comes to truth or not of scaremongering reports which include the 2012 Mayan prophecy, the GNS report of large earthquakes hitting Christchurch between now and February 2013, tsunami’s expected in no particular timeframe, earthquakes destroying Wellington, volcanoes returning to Auckland sometime in the next few million years, and rising sea-levels due to global warming that will see the world burn to a burnt-out crisp, climate change that will flood NZ cities and hammer them with hurricanes, population growth that will see people standing shoulder to shoulder unable to move, so much CO2 filling the air that we will all suffocate, oil shortages that mean we will have to go back to horseback, pollution that will poison mankind - and if that doesn’t get us first then a worldwide shortage of water will, you have to say enough already. Somehow these fear-stories are not viewed as causing stress and anxiety, but my suggested earthquake dates leading up to April, were. The media depend on money, paid for by people buying stories of misery. Therefore they will print any story that satisfies that thirst for it.

Simply may I suggest, do not buy into it. Do not scare your children with it. Turn off the channel ranters who try to sound alarmist to make themselves look effective. May I suggest you quietly and without panic prepare your loved ones for floods, storms, heat-waves and earthquake times if these imminent catastrophes are forecast as likely. The best legacy we can leave future generations is how to cope quietly and maturely with any threat of adversity. When we are prepared fear often dissipates. Rather than the end of the world it is arguably the way to build a new and better world.