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Queenstown mid winter report 2015

MONDAY JUNE 29, 2015

QUEENSTOWN MID WINTER REPORT 2015

This report refers to Queenstown and central Otago.

Topics covered

Snow – more coming
Cold blasts to come
Rest of winter for farmers in Central Otago

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SITUATION:

We will be in an El Nino pattern from July onwards. In NZ, classic El Nino winter patterns are more anticyclones for the Tasman Sea and ridges of high pressure over central New Zealand. These result in more frequent westerlies and southwesterlies over the South Island which makes winter sunnier and more settled with less wind than usual over the country.

Despite early winter falls it is not looking too good for North Island snow. Ruapehu has not received enough yet, and are looking to receive a further 20cm to their snow base before their equipment can be run.

http://www.mtruapehu.com/winter/snow-reports/

They are unlikely to receive that until the end of July. As a result Queenstown may see North Island skiers arriving on its doorstep during July.

It is also not so good for the Australian skifields in NSW and VIC

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/poor-snow-falls-leave-victorian-ski-resorts-with-the-winter-blues-20150630-gi1luc.html

but these should start receiving snow in the second and fourth weeks of July.

The El Nino is tied to the “declination cycle” of the Moon. Due to the tilt of the earth the Moon moves monthly north and south of the equator creating its declination cycle. Whenever the Moon is at its farthest south in winter months we get cold blasts. Every 18.6 years the Moon reaches a maximum declination, north and south, and alternate years a minimum declination N and S. These are called major standstill years and minor standstill years. In years of major standstill (2006, 1987, 1969) the monthly range of the Moon was over Earth's latitudes 28 degrees north and south. But 2015 happens to be the year of minor standstill (like 1997, 1978, 1959) It means that in September 2015 the Moon only reaches 18deg latitude north and south of the equator every 27.3-days, its shortest monthly transit range in 18.61 years.

Major standstill years bring overall cold winters, minor standstill years bring milder winters. The last previous major standstill occurred during 1986/87, and a record snow cover occurred in Canterbury and Southland in 1986. Major standstill before that was 1968, the year of the Wahine Disaster, and 1969. Two months after Wahine the southern declination was 22 June 1968 and we can go to the Meteorological Gazette, and read how very bad the cold was:

June 1968: “25th - 30th - strong NW to SW winds, several troughs crossing country, snow to low levels..especially around Queenstown”. July 1968: "In Southland, Otago and inland South Canterbury temperatures 2F-5F below average, the coldest month since July 1938. The snowfalls on the last 4 days of June on the high country of both islands and to low levels in the South Island persisted for the first 4 days of July. Frosty conditions, especially during the first half of the month, allowed little opportunity for the snow to melt over the greater part of the South Island. On the hills to the SW of Mossburn at 2000ft altitude snow depth was 2 ft, and 10 ft in the drifts, remaining frozen there for 3 weeks. Very severe conditions were experienced, even at quite low altitudes where snow cover persisted. TaraHills at 1600 ft (488M) had hard snow lying on the ground the whole month, never less than 5.5 inches in depth. The mean temp of 23.2F (-4.9C) was the lowest ever recorded in New Zealand below 3000 ft. On 8 days the temperature failed to reach 32F (0C), the lowest maximum being 20F (-6.7C) on the 14th. The air temperature fell below 0F (-17.8C) on the 6th, 7th and 14th..."

Southern declination was close - on 9 July 1968.

Major standstill years before that were 1950, 1931/2, 1913/14, 1894/5. A new NZ record for lowest temperature was set at Ophir on 3 September 1950, and this was to remain unbroken for 50 years. 25 June 1895 saw a severe snowstorm in Canterbury. Other bad winter years on cycle halfway points like 1939, 1945 and 1992 also spring to mind.

2015 is the first minor standstill year of the Moon since 1997. Previous minor standstill years have been 1997, 1978/9, and 1959/60, all years that like 2015 saw winter perigees accompanying full moons. These were years of overall milder winter temperatures. Typically these winters start with a cold blast or two but do not sustain snow for long. 1979 saw a mild wet winter and closer perigees in late winter, much like 2015. The 2014/15 summer was not overly warm in the South island and dry weather in the South Island predictably stretched longer into March and beyond in some cases. But notwithstanding the usual cold blasts of any typical winter season, we expect relatively milder temperatures after July for the South Island.

Farmers should always expect cold temperature plunges when full moon and southern declination combine, almost every winter around June through August. Overlay a major standstill/maximum declination year and trouble is guaranteed. But overlay a minor standstill year and you have less snow.

Drops in temperatures are mostly when full moon is close to southern declination.

This year the southern declination times are

4 June. 1 July, 29 July, 25 August, 22 Sept, 19 Oct, 15 Nov.

Full moon times are

3 June, 2 July, 31 July, 30 August, 28 Sept, 28 Oct, 26 Nov.

Perigee times (moon closest to earth, increases extremes) are

10 June, 6 July, 1 August, 31 Aug, 28 Sept, 27 Oct, 24 Nov.

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SNOW - QUEENSTOWN - MORE COMING

JULY

First half of July: very little snow.

Third week of July (20^th-24^th ): some big snowfalls expected, up to 6cm+.

Last few days of the month: moderate snowfall anticipated, prior to Full Moon 27^th-30^th (est. 16mm during this spell)

AUGUST

First week dry and frosty

Second week sees some overnight snowfalls around the 10^th-13^th (est. 20mm)

Last 10 days of the month: good snowfalls likely between 20^th - 25^th (est. up to 80mm+) and chance of lighter snow at higher latitudes around 28^th-30^th.

SEPTEMBER

First week: getting milder but chance of snow 1^st-2^nd and 5^th-7^th (est.25mm)

Remainder of the month: mostly dry with showery events 21^st-22^nd likely to be rain or sleet.

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COLD BLASTS TO COME

JULY

5^th-7^th Unsettled and cold with chance of light snow south and east of South Island.

12^th-20^th Freezing fog and widespread hoar frosts for Central Otago.

21^st-22^nd Widespread snow (including to low levels) for Central Otago

27^th-31^st Southerly depression moves up over the South Island.

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AUGUST

12^th-31^st A number of significant snow storms in the south and east.

13^th-15^th Snowfalls in high country areas, including closing the LindisPass and snow to sea-level in Southland

21^st-30^th A series of deep depressions cross to south of South Island.

25^th Snow is likely to low levels in Southland (accompanied by thunderstorms). Fresh snowfalls to Queenstown ski fields

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SEPTEMBER

1^st-2^nd Storm bringing snow to sea level in Canterbury and Otago, also Christchurch.

5^th-8^th Southern depression moves up over the South Island.

16^th Chances of snow from eastern Otago to Kaikoura, settling in some high country areas. Snow possible for Otago coasts, BanksPeninsula and ArthursPass

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OCTOBER

3^rd-4^th Chance of snow in South Island to low levels in Canterbury and Southland

18^th Chance of snow for BanksPeninsula

20^th-27^th Series of southerly depressions move across the South Island

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NOVEMBER

12^th-13^th Southerly depression crosses south of the South Island

18^th-20^th Cold southerly flow moves over the South Island.

20^th-22^nd Chance of cold southwesterlies bringing snow to northern Southland, South Otago and inland Canterbury

28^th-30^th Intense southerly depressions cross over the South Island

DECEMBER

7^th-8^th Cold southerly flow arises from deep depressions south of the South Island.

13^th-14^th Intense deep depression originates in south of the South Island. Chance of snow in the southwest of the South Island from Te Anau to Milford

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REST OF WINTER FOR FARMERS IN CENTRAL OTAGO

JULY

Generally sunnier conditions (around 20-25% more than normal) averaging around 3-4 hours of sunshine a day, and slightly cooler than average.

Blustery around the 1^st-3^rd, 6^th, 19^th-24^th, 27^th-30^th

Thunderstorms possible around the 4^th, 11^th-12^th, 14^th, 21^st-22^nd

Hail possible around the 4^th, 11^th, 14^th

Chance of flooding in the northwest around the 20^th

Chance of fog around the 12^th-13^th, 15^th-18^th, Frosts likely most days

Snow possible on about 8 days, around the 4^th-7^th, 20^th-24^th, 29^th

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AUGUST

Generally cloudier (around 12% less than normal) averaging 3-4 hours of sunshine a day and cooler than average

Blustery around the 1^st, 3^rd, 10^th-11^th, 13^th-14^th, 20^th-28^th

Stormy air around the 23^rd-25^th

Thunderstorms possible around the 10^th, 12^th, 25^th

Chance of fog 17^th, Frosts most days, possible 1^st-26^th, 29^th-31^st

Snow possible on about 14 days, around the 3^rd, 7^th, 9^th-15^th, 20^th-21^st, 23^rd-25^th, 31^st

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SEPTEMBER

Generally drier with average sunshine at around 5hours of sunshine a day and cooler than average (up to 2.5 ° C cooler overall than the monthly average)

Blustery around the 5^th-10^th, 15^th, 19^th-21^st, 23^rd, 25^th

Thunderstorms possible around the 27^th, 30^th

Frosts possible around the 1^st-8^th, 10^th-20^th, 22^nd-30^th

Snow possible around the 1^st, 15^th

With lambing gestation at 147-151 days, the frosts may be largely over by 23 Sept, so rams should have been put out about the last week in April to avoid lamb losses .

PRODUCTS FROM PREDICTWEATHER

For more in-depth reports of daily conditions at NZ's main snowfields please visit our snowfield packages. Each contains:

· Daily entry spreadsheet showing precipitation, sunshine hours, temperatures max min and dewpoint, wind force, relative humidity, and daily snow expectation for the whole season.

· Graphs of all of the above for the whole period.

· Tables of days when there will be most precipitation for the season, most sunshine etc

· Snow diary covering both islands.

· Maps of precpitation distribution for the whole country for months April to December