Farming Show, NewstalkZB, transcript 31 August

Transcript of 31 August interview on NewstalkZB

September 2016 in NZ

We're coming up to New moon on 1 September, often a recipe for winter anticyclones. I'm not just saying that - the NM on 4 July saw a big anticyclone sitting just to our west, 1024 hectopascals, the NM on 4 Aug created another in the same position, it was 1034hpA, and this one is 1029hpA

So over the next week some relatively stable conditions, wind picking up around the 4th of September. And the best skiing was always going to be late August onwards into September with the August snow in place and the sunnier September conditions.  So still milder weather.

In September the areas getting ABOVE average rain will be  Coromandel Peninsula,  Western & central NI not including Taupo,  Lower NI,  Nelson and Marlborough,  Inland Otago,  Buller/West Coast/Fiordland   and the places staying BELOW the average for rain will be  Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Rotorua, Hamilton,  Taupo,  Gisborne, Hawkes Bay,  Canterbury,  Coastal Otago, Dunedin

I think this whole month coming will be overall drier for the NI and overall wetter for the SI, except drier for the southern hydrolakes, All of us will be sunnier than the norm, and with average temperatures.

In the second half of September, it is sunny and continuing to be very dry in the east, also dry in the north of the North Island but wet in the south of the South Island.   Temperatures are remaining mild.   Not a lot of snow going on, but could be for Dunedin and Chch around 13th-15th which will be just after the southern declination. Remember around and just after the last southern declination on 15 Aug, there was fresh snow on Ruapehu and Treble Cone.

So to start September we have a westerly change around the 2nd and 3rd, that will bring rain in the north of both islands, and then in the start of the second week comes the next lot of anticyclonic conditions, and the temperature in Ruapehu plunges, and then after the 12th there's four weeks that will feel like mid, rather than early, spring with more frequent westerly or southwesterly flows over much of the country.   It'll be those westerlies that will bring frequent clear skies in the east of both Islands.  

Anticyclones across northern New Zealand will make depressions pass to the south of the country.   In the previous 11 months before September, there has been below average rain in the east from Wairarapa to north Otago, lowering soil moisture levels.   So this dryness will start to get more severe in coming months. That's kind-of the big midsection of the country. But in contrast, the far south of the South Island will get wet changeable conditions.   From mid Sept to mid Oct, in the east of both Islands, you've got daytime maximums going above average, and night time minimums below average each by about a degree .   In the 3rd week, we have a change to cold southerlies and southwesterlies with showers in the south and west. The 4th week again brings anticyclonic conditions.   In the last days a frontal band passes over New Zealand and that clears the way for settled weather with high pressures once again. The biggest anticyclone will be then, and I have hPascals up well over 1030

So in a nutshell, d ry in north and east, quite wet conditions in the lower NI and the lower West of the NI, wet in the top and west of the SI, and wet for inland Otago and Invercargill. The most amounts of NI rain will be on the 26th, then on the 5th+6th and then 16th. In the SI it'll be heaviest on the 25th and then 2nd-5th

For 2017 without giving too much away, a hot dry summer and very warm autumn will cause pasture to dry up in the upper North Island, and some southern regions will be applying for drought relief.   Most of us will have slightly warmer temps for the year.   But the lack of summer rain will see feed scarce and that is going to force some farmers to reduce herds.