Sunspots
Monday 23rd March 2009
January 2, 2008
"Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida confirms NASA solar physicists' view that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC concludes they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era. Solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this year, will be at 50 or lower. This could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. This next solar minimum heralds much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. We may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.."
WHAT ARE SUNSPOTS?
Conditions at the Sun's core (approximately the inner 25% of its radius) are extreme. The temperature is 15.6 million Kelvin and the pressure is 250 billion atmospheres. At the center of the core the Sun's density is more than 150 times that of water. Since the formation of the solar system the Sun's output has increased by about 40%. The Sun is about 4.5 billion years old. Since its birth it has used up about half of the hydrogen in its core. It will continue to radiate "peacefully" for another 5 billion years or so (although its luminosity will approximately double in that time). But eventually it will run out of hydrogen fuel. It will then be forced into radical changes which, though commonplace by stellar standards, will result in the total destruction of the Earth and probably the creation of a planetary nebula. Conditions at the Sun's core (approximately the inner 25% of its radius) are extreme. The temperature is 15.6 million Kelvin and the pressure is 250 billion atmospheres. At the center of the core the Sun's density is more than 150 times that of water.
The Sun's energy output (3.86e33 ergs/second or 386 billion billion megawatts) is produced by nuclear fusion reactions. Each second about 700,000,000 tons of hydrogen are converted to about 695,000,000 tons of helium and 5,000,000 tons (=3.86e33 ergs) of energy in the form of gamma rays. As it travels out toward the surface, the energy is continuously absorbed and re-emitted at lower and lower temperatures so that by the time it reaches the surface, it is primarily visible light. For the last 20% of the way to the surface the energy is carried more by convection than by radiation. The surface of the Sun is called the photosphere.
In addition to heat and light, the Sun also emits a low density stream of charged particles (mostly electrons and protons) known as the solar wind which propagates throughout the solar system at about 450 km/sec. The solar wind and the much higher energy particles ejected by solar flares can have dramatic effects on the Earth ranging from power line surges to radio interference to the beautiful aurora borealis. Recent data from the spacecraft Ulysses show that during the minimum of the solar cycle the solar wind emanating from the polar regions flows at nearly double the rate, 750 kilometers per second, than it does at lower latitudes. The composition of the solar wind also appears to differ in the polar regions. During the solar maximum, however, the solar wind moves at an intermediate speed. The solar wind has large effects on the tails of comets and even has measurable effects on the trajectories of spacecraft.
The Sun's output is not entirely constant. Nor is the amount of sunspot activity. There was a period of very low sunspot activity in the latter half of the 17th century called the Maunder Minimum. It coincides with an abnormally cold period in northern Europe sometimes known as the Little Ice Age. Sunspots are "cool" regions(they look dark only by comparison with the surrounding regions). Sunspots can be very large, as much as 50,000 km in diameter. Sunspots are caused by complicated and not very well understood interactions with the Sun's magnetic field. In addition to heat and light, the Sun also emits a low density stream of charged particles (mostly electrons and protons) known as the solar wind which propagates throughout the solar system at about 450 km/sec. The solar wind and the much higher energy particles ejected by solar flares can have dramatic effects on the Earth ranging from power line surges to radio interference to the beautiful aurora borealis. Recent data from the spacecraft Ulysses show that during the minimum of the solar cycle the solar wind emanating from the polar regions flows at nearly double the rate, 750 kilometers per second, than it does at lower latitudes. The composition of the solar wind also appears to differ in the polar regions. During the solar maximum, however, the solar wind moves at an intermediate speed. The solar wind has large effects on the tails of comets and even has measurable effects on the trajectories of spacecraft.
Sunspots are regions of strong magnetic field. The intense field, for unknown reasons, makes Sunspots cooler than the rest of the Solar surface. Sunspots have temperatures on the order of 4,500 Kelvins compared to 5,800 Kelvins for the rest of the Sun. The number of Sunspots is a strong diagnostic for the activity level of the Sun. This was noted in the 1800's by Heinrich Schwabe who discovered the Sunspot Cycle. Recent maximums have been around 1958/9, 1969/70, 1980-82, 1989-92, 1999-2002.
Sunspots appear as visible spots on the disk of the Sun. A sunspot will have a very dark central region known as the umbra. It is often surrounded by a less dark halo known as the penumbra. The umbra is dark because it is cooler (around 3,500°C/6,300°F) than the surrounding sunscape (around 5,500°C/10,000°F). Spots change over a period of several days. They also move across the Sun as the Sun spins on its axis. Because the Sun is fluid it spins but not as a rigid body. A spot near the equator will take about 25 days to complete one rotation. A spot near a pole, if there was ever one there, would take over a month to make the round trip. Collections of sketches over a period of several years will reveal that Sunspots occur on a cycle of 9-13 years, some say 11 years, some claim 22 years. It depends on your selection of data. For convenience we mainly recognise 11 year and 22 year cycles of sunspots. Over that period the numbers of spots goes from a maximum to a minimum and back. 2007 is now considered to be close to nadir of a solar cycle; the end of a low point in sunspot minimums.
Low sunspot years translate into colder conditions because of higher cosmic radiation which allows less cloud to form, and it is the cloud cover that warms the earth. Sunspot activity produces particles which knock out the cosmic radiation. For that reason when the sun is active the weather is more stable and crops flourish, forcing down prices. When the sun is inactive we get bad weather and higher food prices. They have known about this since the 1600s. In the 1800s the stock market speculated on wheat prices on the basis of sunspot cycles. Low sunspot activity = drought conditions because of less evaporation. High sunspot activity = good rainfall. We are coming out of low sunspot activity and will begin rising up to next peak about 2011/12.
Cycle 21 started in June 1976 with a smoothed sunspot number of 12.2.
Cycle 22 started in September 1986 at 12.3.
Cycle 23 started in May 1996 with the monthly SSN at 8.0 and peaked in April 2000 at 120.8. The first year after solar minimum, marks the end of Cycle 23. The last smoothed monthly sunspot number was for December 2006 at 12.1.
This current solar minimum was predicted to be between March and September 2007 but the minimum has been late to certify itself. The first year after solar minimum marks the end of Cycle 23. Cycle 24 could begin around June of 2009. Signs are still good for low sunspot activity till mid this year, which wouldn't bring much rainfall if you only looked at the SS activity. The longer it takes for SC24 to begin, the more likely it will be weak...very weak. SC24 will determine the temperatures in the next decade. Warmer temps could come around 2013, about the time SC24 will be in effect. This ties in with the ENSO which indicates the next drought for NZ and Australia between 2011-13.
Planets the probable cause of sunspots
Jupiter orbits the Sun exactly 15 times in 178 years, 178 orbits of Earth, and that is precisely the time taken for 16 sunspot cycles, give or take 9 hours. So a ratio of 15,16,178. Another planet is also involved in this synchronicity, Saturn, it orbits 6.043 times in 178 years. Take the orbit of Saturn and map it against the 250 year sunspot record and something interesting happens, the sunspot record shows cycles dependant upon Saturn's position in its orbit and clear troughs appear when the planet is both closest and furthest from the Sun. There is a clear relationship between sunspot levels and the position of Saturn in its orbit. There is a link to the relative position of Jupiter and this illustrates part of the timing mechanism for the sunspots.
Movements of the planets generate the Solar heartbeat and coincidentally our upwardly pulsing geothermal output. As the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn cross over due to their relative inclinations there is a zone of influence when their combined energies whether tidal or magnetic are more likely to impinge upon the Sun and stimulate a sunspot peak. It is heliocentric, the Sun being the centre of the orbits. The speed of the planets is also of consequence with Saturn accelerating into the zone as it heads towards periapsis and slowing as it heads towards apoapsis thus the characteristics of each zone are slightly different and slightly displaced. The third peak is just before Saturn is at apoapsis. It may well relate to what astrologers called a trine, three points within an orbit 120 degrees apart. The third peak appears to be caused by the speed differential between the two planets as they speed up and slow down in their orbits causing the planets to remain conjunct for longer.
If you check the conjunctions of Jupiter Neptune and compare it to the sunspot counts you will find that the largest number of sunspots occur with the conjunction. Over 200 sunspots in 1778, over 100 in 1893 and again in 1905 and over 200 in 1957 Not always true of Jupiter and Neptune but it happens. For example in 1991 with Saturn-Uranus-Neptune conjunct we had 200 Sun Spots. Jupiter-Saturn conjunctions and oppositions seem to correlate with numbers of sun spots. The last times Jupiter and Saturn together were positioned with respect to the Sun akin to 2009 seem to have been 1948, 1891 and 1831. In 1948 sunspots fell sharply. 1891 was around the beginning of Cycle 13, which peaked in 1893 and was a weak sunspot cycle. 1831 was in the dying stages of Cycle 7. The following, Cycle 8, first peaked in 1836. So it seems we are in for a slow next-cycle, with a peak between 2-5 years away.
Sunspot cycles are regular. Counting began with Solar cycle 1 which peaked around 1761. Solar Cycle 23 has just finished and we are waiting upon Cycle 24. The charts below show average sunspots per month. Years of inactivity which determine absolute troughs have been 1755, 1766, 1775, 1784, 1798, 1809-11, 1823, 1834, 1843, 1856, 1867, 1879, 1890, 1901, 1913, 1924, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1985, 1996, and 2008. Because Cycle 23 in size best resembles Cycle 19 which peaked in 1957, and which was followed by Cycle 20, together that took up about 20 cooler years, it has been postulated that Cycle 24 will also begin about two decades of cooler temperatures.
Sunspot numbers in the 1700s
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Sunspot numbers in the 1800s
Sunspot numbers in the 1900s
Sunspot numbers in the 2000s (so far)
The next Jupiter-Neptune conjunction is DEC 21 2009 and the next Jupiter-Saturn opposition is March 2011. Expect lots of sunspots, beautiful auroras and abundant supplies of commodities.
35 and 36-yr cycles are also called Bruckner Cycles(3 revolutions of Jupiter), when polarity reverses. Inigo Jones found that sunspot minima occurred when Jupiter reached north in the sky. So did severe droughts in E Australia. The 71 year cycle (6 revolutions of Jupiter) where polarities were the same, works best.
The moon is focussed on the sun and 71 years is about 4 major standstill cycles. I find 36 years is a pretty good predicting tool and 1972 is a fairly similar year to 2008 in terms of rainfall timing, wheras 1977 is a good parallel year to 2008 for rainfall amounts. 1970-1976 were good rain years for the Warragamba dams. We are 36-yrs later now. Major standstill of the moon brings drouights because the moon reaches the furthest north every month during the major standstill, towards the hot equator, and if you combine this with with low SS activity you get an exaggeration of dry conditions. We're still moving OUT of the max dec position. and also heading out of the solar min, so good rains should be established about 2009 and 10.
Sunspots and earthquakes
A blank sun and no sun spots is observed to be the prelude to possible earthquake and volcanic activity. The lag from cause to effect may be the reason for the imbalance in earthquake energy output during lower sunspot activity. It is speculated that the increase in solar activity during the cyclical high sunspot period is responsible for increased geothermal output on Earth. The average sunspot count of 17 for the top 12 earthquakes in the last century can be coupled with the average sunspot count for period of 22.45. This all strongly infers a connection between sunspots and earthquakes.
Conclusion
Cycle 24 is a while off. From July 2007 to 25/3/2008 the situation is that cycle 23 that began in 1996 still reigns and has for the moment really caught a blossoming. From Cycle 24 there is a single tiny signature in 4.1.2008 and then nothing. Through March 2008 we have had 16 spotless days, one spot group from cycle 23 (southern hemisphere) on 7 days thus far, two spot groups from cycle 23 (SH) on 2 days thus far (24.3.-), three spot groups from cycle 23 (SH) on 1 day thus far (25.3.-) and no spots from cycle 24 thus far. Cycle 24 will take a while and there is a transition period. The orbits of the two gas giants Jupiter and Saturn but mainly Jupiter, dominate sunspot production. The relevant points of orbit are opposition (Jupiter and Saturn 180deg apart, or on opposite sides of the sun) and conjunction (Jupiter and Saturn in line with and on same side as the sun). Jupiter is now in the same position as in March 1996, which was a month in which cycle 23 had not yet kicked in.
Consider this:
the peak of SS20 was 1969/70, and the nearest J/S opposition was 1971-72
the peak of SS21 was 1980/82, and the nearest J/S conjunction was 1981
the peak of SS22 was 1984/92, and the nearest J/S opposition was 1991
the peak of SS23 was 1999/02, and the nearest J/S conjunction was 2000-01
the peak of SS24 should be 2010, and the nearest J/S opposition will be 2011.
A sunspot is said usually underway about 1-2 years before peak.
Our calculation therefore is that SS24 should not begin before Sept 09.
How to calculate yearly rain amounts
The moon method is best for rain TIMING. As rain AMOUNTS depend on prior evaporation rates, which are due to the activity of the Sun, we need to match years of SUNSPOT cycles. As mentioned, Sunspot, or Solar Cycles, last on average 11 and 22-years. The moon is on an 18-20 year cycle, and extend to a 36-38-year cycle. The difficulty is that the last time the MOON was in its equivalent position to that in 2008, the equivalent SUNSPOT year (22-year cycle) does not match. Therefore the amounts of rain that arrive may not tally exactly with the predictions we set out, but be somewhat less this year than the figures we quote. This is a known discrepancy, but can be accounted for. This year, 2008, in sunspot equivalence is a close match to what happened sun--spot-wise in 1986, 1976, 1953, 1934-5, 1923, 1911-12, 1900-02, 1888, 1867, 1856, 1834, 1822-23, 1808-11, 1798 and 1754, and if you have records of those years you may want to compare the yearly overall totals in your location. It will differ in each locality, because some will be affected more by latitudinal difference. But let us look at an example. Looking to find an indication of rainfall amounts for 2008, we can note that the Australian town of Clermont has available data going way back to the late 1800s. Consider what rain amounts Clermont received over 1986, 1976, 1953, 1934-5, 1923, 1911-12, 1900-02, 1888, 1867, 1856, 1834, 1822-23, 1808-11, 1798 and 1754:
1986 (619mm), and 1987, 602mm, were followed in 1988 by 868mm which is why I think things are looking optimistic for some drought-affected areas going into 2009.
1976 (680mm) and 1977(640mm) followed by 1978(933) shows the same trend.
1953 (602mm) was followed by 1954 (992mm), again same trend.
We can keep going back and although the trend sometimes wavers, it is generally pretty clear. Fo
1934(448mm) and 1935(339mm) were followed by 1936(603mm), but figures were down in 1937 (462mm), then way up again in 1938 (782mm), which means it was a delayed upturn.
1923 served 534mm followed by 1924 with 760mm.
1911(637mm) and 1912(604mm) were followed by 1913(809mm).
At the turn of the century, the Federation Drought, saw a string of lean annual figures;
1900(407mm), 1901(427mm), 1902(187mm), 1903(457mm), 1904(547mm), 1905(492mm), but then 1906(947mm). And even FURTHER back, 1888(453mm) was followed by1889 (807mm).
So although there are some unexplained years where the trend delayed, mostly in the small amount of cycles data we do have, the sunspot number for any year more or less parallels the trend of changing rain amounts. Obviously one can’t get a numbers-grab for amounts each day from this, because sunspots vary slowly, over a week or fortnight. The moon though, changes position constantly and changes zodiac signs every two days. Therefore we can go with moon cycles data for our timing, and to very rough extent for amount trends. By applying the above years to local historic data you can get a reasonable end-of-year-total amount for YOUR location. To read more about how the lunar cycles and solar cycles interweave, and why the occasional sunspot-high season actually turns out to be cooler, see my book Lunar Code, available online
For details see SHOP
