Daily Weather Blog Archive
FRIDAY AUGUST 13, 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LeMaIz99M4 29 November
Cold in north, warm in south
The moon is in Virgo, coming up to lastQ phase, and crossing the equator heading south. This is an ascending moon in the southern hemisphere, descending in its arc across the sky when viewed from the northern hemisphere. Northern declination was 6 days ago, and always generates winter in the north of the world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-JnFIaUt6c 5 November
More shakes and snow
Earthquakes are clustering again as the new moon and perigee come back around. But apart from a couple of 4-mags they are staying small as the moon moves further away each month, until a change in February. The southern declination means a cooling of weather and some rain to this part of the world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DVzVI9fDlA 20 October
Why the cold and wind?
It is icy cold at the moment in the southern parts of the southern hemisphere because of the southern declination about a week ago. It will go icy cold for the north of the northern hemisphere in about a week's time due to the northern declination. It is also windy, due to lunar equinox. Ireland and Australian weather, also an update on the latest Christchurch shake.
Earthquakes, why they also happen on apogees, and a look at weather for this week and also at Labour Weekend weather for NZ. The apogee is tomorrow and Tonga was hit this morning with some over 5s, also Christchurch with two 4+mag shakes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oFkMl_Baz0 18 October
Winter for Ireland .
A quick overview of what to expect this winter for Ireland, and the reasons for the opinion. How does it compare with last winter? Cold but not as cold, drier but still likely to be some wet periods, probably all over by February
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZMl2MFj1rc 19 Sept
Just when we've been looking at the moon and it's potential for stormy wintry weather based on perigee, declination and phase, along comes the equinox and associated gales. But you won't hear much about that on the official forecasting websites because they want you to believe that humans are to blame for bad weather and changing climate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxODl1148ek 18 Sept
Unsettled weather should last until next Wednesday
The rough weather and the Christchurch earthquake are linked, as the moon goes from second closest to earth for the year to fourth furthest away, thus moving faster and creating more turbulence. The disturbance is manifest in land, sea and air. The moon is in Capricorn, one of the rainiest signs, and moving north. The Waikato River is running high but should begin to drop after the weekend.
Passing note. The metservice of NZ appeared to have their noses out of joint because another weather service had put out media reports of this storm system on Wednesday night, quick off the mark before MS had had a chance to issue their bulletins. The result was a most bizarre YouTube denial from MS that the warnings had come from them, as well as, in the same broadcast, a public warning anyway but in their words. It is interesting and refreshing to see that there are several weather organisations in NZ now competing for media space, and a reminder that there should be no professional jealousy. No one organisation owns the weather, nor has the right to assume that they are the official spokespersons. The public will always decide which and who serves them best.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSkPEvn5DRA 23 Aug
The Sun crosses into Virgo tomorrow, so this is officially the last day of winter if you go by the zodiac. Clearly though, there's still a lot of winter to come and some places in the South Island are not nearly in spring yet, much as they would wish to be. Chances of more snow this week and there could be some flooding in some places after the full moon on Thursday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guga_d5MwXQ 17 Aug
Jetstreams Part 1
A two part blog about jetstreams, what they are and how they form. The first blog deals with the two oceans, one being the sea and the other the atmosphere. We walk between them. The moon impacts on each. Higher to surface currents in the sea move faster; it's the same with the air.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4WCv8QoKkw 17 Aug
Jetstreams Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5uVYFkXh8 16 Aug
Part 2 of the explanation about jetstreams. Jetstreams move south in the 2010 northern hemisphere summer because the south-moving moon is both in new moon phase (causing cooling) in perigee (adds to cooling). Warmer air displaces north. Result: Pakistan floods and Russian heatwave. Same thing happened in 2007 when Greece nearly burnt up.
Floods easing as moon moves away
The tides are going down and flooding will dissipate quickly, as extreme weather is easing around the world. The moon has been very close and moving fast, but will slow after tomorrow. The first quarter moon on Tuesday brings morning cold and rain, and a few sunny afternoons in NZ. But colder temperatures are soon setting back in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrhcuBY43kI 14 Aug
The cold engine of winter
Why was it cold in the last half of July? There are two ways winter cold gets generated, which is why more is coming to NZ in about a week's time. Expect more blocked roads, snow storms and squally weather before August is over. Find out when the coldest winter temperatures in Ireland may arrive, and a very wet month for Australia..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQg4HUX670g 8 Aug
Australia in August Part 1 NSW and QLD summary
Quick report for Australia for the rest of August. Rain in bottom half only, but falls not significant until the 13th. NSW and QLD summarised, plus what can be expected in the dams. Moon coming up to be new soon, with a close perigee. The highest tides of the month have been the reason for the Pakistan floods.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuIVf5qHDHI 8 Aug
Australia in August Part 2, VIC and SA summary
VIC and SA summarised for the remainder of August, including dams. VIC average rain but much snow at Falls Creek. SA should have a wetter than average month.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq0a2qZJlfw 8 Aug
Australia in August Part 3, WA, NT and TAS summary
Third part of three-part summary for rest of August for WA, NT and TAS. NT gets little or no rain, TAS gets little or no dry days, well, maybe three. TAS has a vigorous month with regard to rain and snow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxLnbCs-RYU 7 Aug
Ireland in August summary
A quick look at Ireland weather for August. Slightly wetter than average over the next few weeks and some get heavy falls at times, but some good sunny spells are also expected. Autumn should be cooler than average especially during October. More in our Ireland August 7-package, in the e-book section http://www.predictweather.co.nz/ShopProducts.aspx?ID=2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcZ1vSBiXSM 4 Aug
NZ in August Part 2
All NI regions above average rain, except Hawkes Bay mostly dry from now on. In SI, Canterbury and S Cant. may have a drier than average month. All other regions may be wetter, especially Auckland, central Plateau, South Island West Coast and Southland. The second and third weeks may bring dry spells for some. Prevailing winds this month: westerly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2mHDr1V3A0 31 Aug
NZ in August
Summary for NZ for August 2010. The wettest month of the year for most, but average to drier for Canterbury because they will be sheltered from the persistent rain-bearing westerlies, by the Alps. Temperatures average to mild in the NI, but minimums are set to drop everywhere in October.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89lm6C1GafY 26 July
Why full moon skies are usually clear
The old saying was that the full moon eats clouds, and it's usually true. This blog explains why you get less clouds being able to form on the full moon night. It is something you can look ahead and plan for quite safely. This month's full moon is called the Thunder Moon, and on the evening the northern hemisphere often gets thunder before the sky clears. And something else to watch out for tonight is the threesome of Venus, Mars and Saturn setting close together.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZTglr1vF2s 20 July
With the moon at Scorpio, just one sign away, we're nearly at the southern declination, and that will happen on Thursday. Result? Snow to the South Island and some wintry weather for the North Island over the next two weekends. But the upper part of the North island is set for some milder temperatures for a few weeks. Then it's back into another burst of freezing winter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btkg5y-xisI 17 July
We're halfway through July, and snow is due over the next week, in line with the almanac predictions of early cold for the seaon but later precipitation amounts. August may be the heaviest rain/snow month of the year. September may be a month of unusual cold and wind, which means stock losses unless farmers prepare for it now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vSefpem2cc 16 July
Weather for County Kerry. Floods have been due to the biggest tides plus the new moon in perigee coming down from the north. All that is now dissipating but the rest of July may be unsettled and showery across the country. August is brighter, with more than average sunshine expected. Our 1meg lookahead report for County Kerry is available from the e-book store.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGC5qFfNvx0 14 July
The moon is in Leo. Venus is close to and will appear to be alongside the moon on Friday. Venus+moon is typically a wet indication, traditionally called "farmers friend" because of the type of gentle persistent rain that can be expected for a few days. Good fishing until Thursday.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXAFSfv2wZo 12 July
New moon today, moon at northern declination, perigee tomorrow, so quite a bit happening. The tidal variation is the biggest for the month around the world this week and that can generate swells and lower air pressure, resulting in unsettled weather, which should click in for NZ around the 16th.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqf2TfQtvmg 8 July
A look at the Queenstown region and snows to come. It's a winter early starting and with late cold extending into September. Next week sees the perigee on 13th, the seventh closest the moon gets to Earth for the year, and some precipitation from that is expected, September is a good month to go skiing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aWuImiPSmg 5 July
This week is aphelion, sun furthest from earth for the year. It brings cooler temperatures, especially to countries experiencing winter. The sun being closer to earth in the first week of January is the reason that the southern hemisphere summer is usually hotter than the northern hemisphere summer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A74auo8WHKI 4 July
Good time for fishing until Tuesday, also for diving because of the lower tide heights, good for pruning, spraying roots and sowing saplings that need to develop good root systems if you're a southern hemisphere gardener. Also a good time to harvest if you want food to last a while. Timbermen, a good time to mill wood that is to be used for carpentry, as it should be drier than if cut at other times this month.
http://www.youtube.com/user/MrKenringweatherman#p/a/u/0/q8nNHYPT6Bk 2 July
Moon is in Pisces, the sign of fogs, mist and drizzle, a water sign which is why it is represented as a fish symbol, it crosses the equator tomorrow heading north, and also waning and heading towards last quarter moon which will be next Monday. There’s just been a hurricane in Mexico, hurricane Alex, and these hurricanes and cyclones always are triggered by full moons. They form around the equator and if they form north of the equator they move north if the moon is going north. Something may happen as well at the next time the same conditions will be present, and that will be full moon of 26 July.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDk140B2-OY 30 June
The moon is in Aquarius and running colder, and especially in the S hemisphere. In this blog with July looming, we have a July summary for NZ, for all States in Australia and for Ireland. Our large-package July reports are also now available online for all 3 countries. For these, all priced at under 10 dollars or less than 6EURO, please go to our e-books page, see below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id9bE_7Vefk 23 June
Waxing gibbous moon phase, the foggy one. A cold spell is arriving because the moon is once again in the south. It should hang around for about two weeks and the first week of July may be the coldest in the year. Meanwhile Ireland is in its last week of the best of summer weather. Our July regional reports are now available from our E-book section.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30h2EZS7Zr0 19 June
The moon is in a windy sign because it has crossed the equator, and this lasts for a few days. The result is to bring choppier seas and increased potential for tornadoes to some parts of the globe. Because the moon is moving south, skies are clouding up and rain systems are developing. Moon driven systems like those from the north are longer lasting than those wind-driven that come from the west and southwest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssnkKDz2bz0 18 June
Some winds are coming, and more turbulent weather, typical of a Virgo moon. A node is coming on Sunday, focussing the moon's energies which may result in possible rain in NZ and odd showers for the NSW / VIC border towns in Australia, which are having a dry June and which won't be seeing much rain until after mid August.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzxfX3Gsba4 15 June
The moon is on the move south, bringing colder air over the northern hemisphere and some unsettled weather. This should clear soon. New moons are more destructive to places enjoying summer, especially at higher latitudes. Also today, a discussion about the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Is it anything to worry over longterm?
http://www.youtube.com/user/MrKenringweatherman#p/a/u/0/GLqKrA4GAy4 14 June
It's just past new moon, but the moon is right in the north, bringing some warmth and rain to the southern hemisphere but some cold to the northern hemisphere in the form of showers. It is an earthquake-rich time due to the double factor of new moon+northern declination. Australia can expect a drier than average month, but some strong winds are likely around the 20th. Ireland should fine this week and stay so until the end of the first week in July.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NsVyRgBA6OU 10 June
Coming up to new moon and northern declination on Saturday. The moon is slowing down and so are the weather systems. Highest tides are early next week. Calm but cold nights are in order, cold because when the moon goes below the horizon it goes WAY below the horizon. Some rain in the second half of next week. Good fishing this weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuKHniBm57s 8 June
The moon is again descending, which means the highest daily point it reaches gets progressively lower in the sky. The northernmost point (lowest) is reached on the 12th. Descending moons carry cooler temperatures. It is also last quarter moon and the phase change brings a change in weather patterns. It is set to usher in a drier spell for much of NZ.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6hHMtUUGX8 4 June
The first of a series about what winter conditions to expect in selected regions. In this blog we look at the snow expectations for Ashburton in South Canterbury over June, July and August. Will snow be heavy? When will skies be the clearest? What about wind chill?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4yN_iZbGOU 31 May
Waning gibbous moon in Aquarius is always a cooler sign for us. Because the moon is still in southern declination, the weather goes left to right along latitude lines at the moment. Quck summary of June for NZ; the second week should be the driest for both islands, much rain coming for some including some flooding.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWTLdglIIR4 28 May
The ETS is in the news, but no one in government seems prepared to debate the science, despite Climategate and the huge rise in skepticism. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, it is colourless, odourless and heavier than air. As such, it can neither warm up nor rise in the air. Amounts are so tiny as to be negligible. Why then the fuss over emissions, for which it seems we are all about to be penalised?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0_9rEUi7fE 27 May
It is full moon tonight, although true full moon is about 11am tomorrow. Some of the effects of the full moon are discussed here, and some of the folklore associated with it. The king tides have brought the flooding, but the waters should start to go down as the heavier rains ease and as the tides get less after the weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ASF7g2cRf0 26 May
Only a few days to go for the southern declination. The recent perigee brought the winds, the cold, the rain and now the snow. It's typical autumn perigee weather. As we go into the declination phase either side of the 29th, weather systems slow down and get a bit more stable, but the southern moon will bring some shivers in the south and frosts in the north.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pYBIRoKJz8 24 May
Summer has begun in Ireland, even though May has not yet delivered warmer temperatures. This is about to change, with June possibly the warmest month, and especially the last week. There will be two weeks of summer followed by another fortnight a month later. In between these fortnights may be heavy rain and flooding about mid June in Ireland and also for the North Is of NZ.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwsYD1c2GXc 21 May
The moon is in perigee, when whatever is happening gets exaggerated, according to season. It is also crossing the equator which brings winds. It is also in 1st quarter. That adds up to possible overnight cold and rain for places experiencing winter, and morning fogs elsewhere. The worst of storms is overnight, easing around noon after the moon rises. The earthquake risk lasts another day. More stormy weather in NZ after the weekend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCiF69b1tAA 20 May
The second of a two-part blog. A quick summary of estimates for Australian States between now and the end of the year. A wet spring and early summer is expected for the southeast of the country. NT may get very little rain except for Alice Springs. September may be quite wet for parts of QLD, and NSW may see good falls in July. VIC and SA have good rains to look forward to. All in all, some good rain prospects.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zx8pUl-4o 18 May
A first of a two-part blog about Australia in months ahead. Firstly month by month, what to expect between now and the end of the year. A drier winter for some but a surprisingly wet spring and summer. There will be exceptions: Darwin may get little or no rain between now and October. Tomorrow we will go State by State.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFJgcn6vLlA 16 May
Northern declination today and the moon starts ascending tomorrow. This northern declination is around 25degN, but the highest in recent times was around 28degN in 2006. The next major declination time will be 2025. It means we are getting progressively cooler. The other factor is the (35-yr) turnaround of the cycle of solar radiation which is also looking like bringing a colder and wetter next couple of decades; good news for Australian farmers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFR7_5Vhcrk 15 May
Some fishing tips, seeing today is such a good fishing day. The ideal time is when the barometer is newly on the move, either rising or preferably falling, and the sky is darkening, the wind may be starting to rustle trees and the thermometer perhaps dropping. Fish around the moon rising or falling and when highest or lowest in the sky. Also, how can you tell that a storm may be on the way?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I3D3-0FXWY 13 May
High and lows dominate weather. You can even see the highs going left to right across the TV weather maps, pulled by the eastward monthly orbit of the moon, moving at the average speed of the moon of 13deg per day. The highs are in charge because they are heavier air masses. The high pressure systems follow the moon when the moon changes hemispheres. The lows slip between. The moon is presently going north, a high over the east of Australia has also been building further northwards and a low over NZ got forced downwards carrying rain down NZ's west coast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdqOuzNy7JU 12 May
We are approaching new moon, and the moon is only visible today for some as it rises between E and NE around 5am. The Ireland summer is due to start around 23 May, and it will not be a washout summer as one newspaper misquoted me as saying. In fact a better summer than 2009 is on the cards, and in 2011 should be even better! Meanwhile, storm clouds are gathering in NZ.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKmcp55VuM 11 May
Drought update: a quick run down on what the far north can expect in coming days, also Waikato and N Otago. Other forecasters seem to change their minds every 5 minutes, and then after whatever happens say they predicted it. Mostly they have so far all been wrong about this recent rain. Dargaville, as of 11 May, has received just over 1 inch of rain (25mm) thus far. That will change because 100mm is coming, but the heaviest rain days are still about a week away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dlR6EZLFIA 9 May
In Australia, WA gets rain next week, SE goes cold and showery in places, then mostly fine 12-20 except for some rain in SA and VIC. Then rain 22-25. IN NZ, plenty of overnight rain this coming week, from about Wednesday onwards. Queens Birthday weekend will probably be wet and snowy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cglIz1tY5nI 8 May
Warmer nights as southerlies ease because the moon is no longer at the south of its declination cycle. We're heading towards new moon and tomorrow the moon crosses the equator heading north, in apogee, which is an earthquake-risk period. It also generates winds in about three days time. Fishing not so good - better to stay home and harvest the garden, as produce picked between now and 10th will have a longer shelf-life. Northland drought will break at the end of next week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9xQw3XPVm0 4 May
Cold nights in the southern hemisphere, chance of frosts. The moon turns and begins to trek north tomorrow. Earthquake potential is around at the moment due to a powerful solar wind. Ireland can expect less than six more rain days in May, however some of those will be heavy, with chance of flooding around new moon time. Thereafter only two rain days are expected after the 11th, with the summer weather likely to take hold in the third week of the month.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YBQg_gGf4k 3 May
Some cold weather coming this week, especially when you get out of the direct sunlight. No real rain in NZ until the 7th, then also in Australia. The east of Australia may be wetter after the 22nd. In Ireland only wet days until 7th, then only about 4 rain days before the end of the month. For Ireland, summer kicks in around 25 May.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KirFrTQeajw 30 April
Just after full moon, known as waning gibbous phase. Today the moon doesn't go too far below the horizon after it sets, which means when the airtide doesn't go too far out, leaving much air above the horizon which keeps the sun's heat away, making for cooler days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5apNrSpD9lU 29 April
The day of the full moon. Watch out for crazies! The politicians seem to have joined the crazies with their ETS. Full moon used to be a compass guide to travellers because at midnight it sits exactly at due north when viewed from anywhere in the southern hemisphere, or due south when viewed from anywhere in the northern hemisphere. When will it snow in May?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ2vAj23mkI 28 April
We're a day away from full moon, the moon is still coming south and setting before dawn which is the recipe for fog. When it sets it is well below the horizon which increases the effect of the air-tide. There are currently both king tides in the sea and the air. Viewed from the southern hemisphere, the moon is soon at the highest point above our heads. How much rain is still to fall and what's coming up over the next week or so?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYBk_0fDlog 27 April
Still in waxing gibbous, the moon is set to unleash its weather. Most rain, if about, falls after the moon has set and before it is due to rise. Today that is between 5am and 4.30pm. The trees are rustling in the tops, and that's often a sign of unsettled weather approaching. Plus, all the night birds are completely silent. (this rain overdue by 3-4 days, see p160 of the almanac). But better late than never for the suffering farmers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOTK1fDZxzM 26 April
Waxing gibbous phase of the moon, which is between first quarter and full moon, brings the most chance of fogs. Fogs do occur at other times as well, but not as often. Tragically, this proved fatal on the morning of the 25th for three NZ Air Force crew in an Iroquois helicopter, which crashed in foggy terrain. It is time the authorities woke up to the moon's role in causing weather conditions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2DobiquIjw 25 April
It's perigee today, which means the moon is closer to earth than it has been for 27 days. It will begin to move away from this position tomorrow, but it exerts an influence for about a week and magnifies whatever else is happening. The moon is also crossing the equator. Find out what this brings..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv5PCdpAGwo 23 April
Summer weather is coming up for Ireland. The sunnier weather should begin mid May, with summery temperatures reaching 20s in the last week of May. The highest temperatures should be in the last week of June, when southern declination coincides with full moon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH7ELstgRP8 22 April
NSW is looking fairly healthy as they come out of drought, for the first time in 9 years. That’s the half-tide moon cycle. Every 9 yrs you get a drought in the same place, or a drought relief in the same place. In question time after a talk I gave at a farmers conference in Australia, a person asked me, why is it that you always get heavy rains at the end of a drought? It stumped me for a few minutes, because it is actually true. The answer?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5MnFD-b3rU 21 April
The moon is climbing (ascending) towards its southernmost point on 4 May, when temperatures may suddenly plunge, cold enough for early winter snow in some places. It is also heading towards full moon on 29th. Around now till full moon is a good time for planting in the garden, especially around 27th at 5pm. Best dates for harvesting are 22nd-23rd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuxG9gHamls 20 April
The moon is still in Cancer and still in the north. Cyclonic activity is brewing in the north of Queensland and should bring some flooding in about a week to the Brisbane and Moreton areas. Meanwhile, many rivers are filling from the Paroo feeding into the Darling at last, for the first time in 20 years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tIddhJi4Ow 19 April
Scientists said the dust and ash from Mt Pinatubo in 1991 caused the planet to cool. But Pinatubo had no effect on world temperatures. However they may claim the same about the Iceland eruption, because it's their global warming idea that putting something into the air is able to change climate. But I say no, not ever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmDNDhKy5-8 16 April
The volcano in Iceland occurred on new moon. So did some other high profile volcanoes. So did the earthquake in China. What is it about new moons? At new moon time the moon and sun are in line with earth, creating a double gravitational pull, enough to prise apart tectonic plates. How far away was the moon from Iceland on Wednesday?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTqC4R1I51w 15 April
We've just had a fizzer of a rain system, that which most regular forecasters said it was going to help the drought farmers. The rain band was due to pass over the country during the day, but as most new moon rain falls at night I thought few would get much. Actually, hardly anyone got any decent rain and some got none at all. On the other hand, Ireland hasn’t had rain for a few days and everyone thinks summer has arrived. But they’re not done with winter yet, and there may be a whole lot of rain coming in about a week to the southern counties.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6X5NDN0EhQ 14 April
New moon time again, and rain at night, especially when the moon is directly underfoot. Will it do much for the drought? Probably not, but more should be coming in about a week with the moon's northern declination, which will be of more help to the North Island drought areas. Our NZ ski report is now available, see the website for details. I think it's going to be a season with lots of snow, perhaps too much and access roads may be blocked at times.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XnXYq5v0go 12 April
When the moon goes out of the sky, the times it goes the furthest below the horizon are the times we get the most rain, because it lets in more colder air. That’s, for us in the southern hemisphere, when the moon is between Aries and Virgo, and this month that will be 13th-26th. And that period doesn’t really come again until after May 12th. Meanwhile, in Ireland you won’t see the last of frosts until about May 22nd. Rain dumps and sunny days are coming early in May..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjE34VfBgSU 10 April
A weather event can accompany or follow times when tides peak. For instance, in January the tides were really high around Full moons at the beginning and end of that month and Auckland got rain at both ends of the month. In the troughs between the high tides, when tides were lowest, Auckland got rain exactly at those times too. This month the higher tides come back with the perigee around the 25th and there'll be rain in parts of NZ, WA and Ireland..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmJHHx_4BYQ 8 April
Lots of earthquakes around at the moment due to the solar wind increase, but they are slowing down. The good news is that the sun is getting reactivated at last. The moon is descending and is sitting at 17DegS, and won't be at southernmost point again until 2 May. Cold southerlies are affecting the SI, The NI drought won't get rain until 20-23 April and then over the second half of May.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQc-BHhijY4 Model demo 6 April
The model is now shown moving. When the Southern hemisphere viewer sees the moon in Capricorn+last quarter, over the S hemisphere, the moon is overhead when it reaches its highest point (dawn) – and when it sets (midday) it is only just below the horizon. On the other hand in the northern hemisphere when the moon sets (midday) it is way below the horizon. That means warmer afternoon/nights in the S hemisphere and colder afternoon/nights in the N hemisphere.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oaKJVqJPzzA Moon Cycles 5 April
Today's blog is a short summary of the moon's main cycles. The 3 main ones are the phase, the declination and the perigee. The phase tells you what time of day rain, if about, will fall. Declination tells you the direction of winds likely temperature ranges and barometric changes. Perigee tells you about highest tides and potential for exaggeration of weather events, depending on season. By way of what's happening right now, the last quarter brings afternoon effects, southern declination brings cold to NZ and warmth to Ireland, and last week's perigee brought Cyclone Paul and snow to the UK.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKFcSfhpuK4 4 April
Southern declination today and coming up to last Quarter moon in a day or so, depending on where you are. This brings wind to the southern hemisphere and wet conditions for the northern hemisphere, if not now then within 2 days. Around last quarter any extreme weather more typically occurs after midday, when the moon is below the horizon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7dj897wRRI 2 April
Clearing in NZ after today, after a changeable spell, wet in the NE of Australia, some clear dry days coming up for Ireland over the next week. Cooler temperatures in the southern hemisphere after Sunday, but warmer in the northern hemisphere. Wishing everyone a happy and safe Easter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaYSb0uXNHc Easter for NZ
The Easter report for NZ. Some showers in the leadup to the long weekend, more showers at the start, and even snow in the central plateau, then clearing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uc352oxeHh0 Easter for Ireland
Easter for Ireland may be a little warmer and changeable, with showers to most but odd storms in the southeast that may result in snow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a08yzhnUtf0 Easter for Australia
The Easter outlook for Australia is one of diminishing extreme weather on the eastern coast of two States, rain in the NW of the country, and another low pressure system beginning in the NE. Whilst some may get a beating, other districts may be mainly fine. Colder conditions set in after Easter.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY58M3Gs0bo Origins of Easter
Just a word about Easter and its origins, because it is the only western festival still tied to the moon, which is why each place around the world often gets the same weather trends out of it, year after year. In NZ it generally rains at sometime over Easter weekend and skies clear up when everybody goes back to work.
Check out the free Isobaric Weather Maps for Australia Lookahead 18 March - 8 April.
The cyclone is heading east but a rainband is going west. Meanwhile another system will form after the 25th over northern QLD.
(UPDATE as of 27 March:)
"TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 5:00 pm CST Saturday 27 March 2010
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours..Recent movement..towards the southeast at 14 kilometres per hour."
The southeast means the winds will take it into Queensland!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNpVkcVWsD8 1 April
In the north of Australia, Cyclone Paul is now ex-cyclone Paul. Rain from its remnants is now streaming right across N QLD, as we said it would. The moon has lost its pulling strength as it is now only 3 days from the Southern declination. It's like a swimmer reaching the end of a pool before the turnaround - there's a slowing down at the turn. So maybe a wet start to the holiday, including widespread and sometimes heavy rain expected across the NI then easing back to scattered showers by Saturday and becoming fine by Sunday and Monday as a large anticyclonic systems moves in place.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sul2WwjOjfk 31 March
Full moon is over, tides are running high, fishing is great, good for pruning in the northern hemisphere. Clouds are coming lower as this is not a full moon that is high in the sky. Full moon days can be often rather pale, and skies are typically bluer when the moon is not full, and this blog explains why.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AcUAweJsIw 30 March
The story of the full moon, the air tide and what weather the full moon brings. As measured by weather balloons, there is a kingtide in the air at the same time as in the sea. On full moon day in summer it may be extra hot, but extra cold on a winter's full moon day. This blog explains why.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSs2CaeLPI0 29 March 2010
Ireland may get some heavy rain dumps in some places over the coming week, and April in Ireland may bring odd snowfalls the last of which may be sometime around the 27th. NZ has some unsettled weather over the start of April for both islands, that's towards the end of the week. And Australia may get some flooding in the Northern Tablelands and Kalgoorlie. Sydney's northern suburbs may get heavy rain around April 13.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOFQIBjMOM0 28 March 2010
Right now it is midautumn in the southern hemisphere and midspring in the northern hemisphere. If you live in Ireland put a ring around 28th/29th May and 25th/26th June, and a week either side, in your calendar. You'll hear why in this blog!
The Northern declination, the moon-in-the-north, was on the 23rd. Perhaps that was why it was the coldest day so far in the month across Canada on the 25th, gustiest day in the month for Ireland, coldest night since the middle of February for the northeastern U.S. and unseasonably cold over eastern Mongolia, Manchuria, Koreas, and much of Japan. This was no coincidence. The links to these N dec effects in news-articles are here, just to show I'm not making this up!
N dec effects
Mar 25, 2010 6:08 pm US/Central
"So it was our coldest day this month. It felt worse with a persistent wind from the north. In fact many towns near the Canadian border had a wind chill below zero this morning."
"Fresh to strong, northerly winds will set in as the day goes on, making it feel bitterly cold for the time of year."
"..the coldest night since the middle of February for much of the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada tonight.."
"unseasonably cold temperatures..over eastern Mongolia, Manchuria, Koreas, and much of Japan."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJCknhX1v7g 27 March 2010
Well, yesterday Egmont got snow, and winter here has almost started. The reason is the perigee #8 which is only a day away on the 28th, and the full moon 3 days away, crossing the equator heading south in 2 days time on the 29th, so it’s all happening. The perigee exaggerates whatever else is going on. This one means the moon is about 11% closer. Rises at 4.45pm, sets 3.45am. The F+P is a cyclone breeder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apLB_omBwhE 26 March 2010
Weatherwise, across the Republic of Ireland I’m expecting the first two weeks of April to be cloudy although mostly dry 4th -6th and a sunny day around the 6th, but then showers around the 9th/10th. In NZ this week we got the rain, some tank-filling rain may be coming around April 12th and 21st, then in the second and third weeks in May. In Australia there is another cyclone just starting to form north of the Top End.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0imRYhgfrhs 24 March 2010
An update on weather events, the reason why the northern declination brings rain, coming events in a week or so, the geographical range of forecasts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzJcBBRZDKs 23 March 2010
Astronomical tidbits: We are not staying still. Half the day we are upside down in our chairs, but we are also tearing through space at speeds of 1 million kph. And how long do you think it would take to journey to the sun in our fastest passenger jet, the Concorde?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTXovDByGRs 22 March 2010
Today's the day of equinox and northern declination and the last day before first quarter moon which is a change of phase. You may read about earthquakes, whale strandings, wind gusts and rain, all typically developing around this time. The weather has been settled in NZ, and the change of phase brings a change of weather patterns. The (equinox) wind will start to come from the north, and wind brings rain. The tides will start to fill up over the next few days, as we approach perigee on 28th, and another cyclone should form around 26th in NE QLD.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttbwXhvGfM4 21 March 2010
Northern declination is approaching and will be here on Tuesday. For 3 or 4 days the weather remains what is was at the start of the period, which is around now, and so it's the time of the month the metservices are the most correct.The time they are least correct is when the moon is crossing the equator, heading north or south, because the moon is moving faster then, and bringing new conditions at a faster rate, so the weather is more changeable. N declination brings lower barometric readings, shallow anticyclones, and rising temperatures.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yoGzZ-mOOA 20 March 2010
The equinox is coming up on Monday, and two moon events the next day, Tuesday; a change to 1st Quarter phase and the northern declination, or the lowest the moon will get in the sky for about a month. A new system should develop in N QLD, which could be the low pressure band that is heading that way now intensifying. We could get a dose of equinoctial winds for a couple of days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXSF92PMpJk 19 March 2010
What will the cyclone do? Check out the free Isobaric Weather Maps for Australia Lookahead 18 March - 8 April.
The cyclone is heading east but a rainband is going west. Meanwhile another system will form after the 25th over northern QLD.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNdS7aXT_Rg 18 March 2010
The new moon has shifted slightly to the north, and is still in the sky most of the dy, but against the glare of the sun so is invisible until a thin sliver can be seen around 9pm in the northwest. We are coming up to the first quarter phase and the northernmost point in about 6 days time. In the top half of NZ, apart from rain about now which will clear about Thursday for a mostly dry weekend, weather should be cool, pleasant and mostly dry until around the 26th, when another cyclone is expected to develop. Snow should start appearing soon on some high country hills.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZi6a8kaxQk 17 March 2010
New moon time is a good time for buying bananas! A very wonderful and happy St Patricks Day to our friends in Ireland.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpO2NuL4pmM 16 March 2010The cyclones probably won't come down to NZ. The last two months around the time the moon came south it brought damage, this being the cyclone season, but when going north we are relatively unscathed. The next extreme weather should be at the end of the month. Today at 9am we pass into a new lunar month.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25w5Dd319j4 15 March 2010
The new moon is tomorrow at 9am. Because the moon is going north the cyclones in the Pacific will probably not affect NZ too much, although there is some wind about due to the moon crossing the equator today. The next extreme weather for our part of the world is likely around the end of March.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cfUtAJ1YKEk 14 March 2010
Cyclones are gathering steam in Fiji, Tonga and Noumea, in the Pacific as they usually do in the cyclone season around New moon in summer, and cold winds are buffeting NZ over the next week. Possible first snow on Ruapehu. Not all that much rain around, what there is comes mostly at night.
Antarctica is -63C today and it's not even winter there yet. Yet they say Antarctica is melting? Brrr..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofk_Vwk4ZuA 13 March 2010
There's a jetstream coming up the length of NZ, pulled upwards by the north-trekking moon, and strong enough to cause destruction in wind-susceptible places like Wellington. Not much rain it it, but colder weather. There's a high in the Tasman forcing the wind to the high's edges. That high will stay there for at least a week. We're in new moon phase, that'll be peaking after the weekend. Good for fishing from Sunday to Wednesday, about lunchtime and dawn or dusk.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo926IXu8yU 12 March 2010
Only a few days before new moon. Past the southern declination now and trekking north. The cold change that always happens just past southern declination is having some effect. Some planting tips for northern hemisphere farmers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6gOZ8GQcSU 11 March 2010
We are approaching the New moon phase, and the moon is now in the sky for most of the day, setting as a thin sliver in late afternoon around 4pm. What weather does that typically bring?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNpPCJhh6BU 10 March 2010
Rain is expected around the New moon period which is between 14th-18th but probably will not be enough for Northland. Watch the blog for when the drought will break for the far north and Canterbury/N Otago. Chance of first snows for Ruapehu next week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ButtfKz4dYU 9 March 2010
The moon is soon to start moving north and generating southerlies which will bring cooler conditions. 2010 is likely to be a very cold winter, with many annoying snowstorms at Turoa that will frustrate skiers. A good snowbase may be made for some early summer skiing. Get your firewood now, before the merchants run out when the cold weather arrives.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go79BTwyAoo
8 March 2010
Today at about 7.30am the moon is the furthest point South for the month and won't be as high again for another 27 days in our (Auckland) sky. So what does it mean for the weather? Southern declinations bring slower weather systems, anticyclones in summer to this part of the world, and cooler weather to follow in a few days time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UozyUX5Wd0M 7 March 2010
Weatherwise today brings both warmth and convective showers. If summer hot and humid and rain later, but if winter then more cloud than actual rain.
Today being the 7th is both lastQ and S dec, so it’s a rest day if you’re a gardener, also a day the weather changes its pattern.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjQs_mdWPlk 6 March 2010
The ancients looked at the planets as well as the moon. For instance, today for Auckland, Sun+Jupiter+Mercury are 'together', called in conjunction and was said to herald dry hot weather. Venus opposite Saturn = wet. So can both be true? Moon is heading towards last quarter which means rain after lunch. Perhaps it will be first sunny then rain this afternoon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HOcgdie22A 5 March 2010
Moon moves one twelth of the circle around earth of the sky(divided into 12 artbitrary divisions, called signs) and today is in Scorpio, which was said to cause weather extremes and excessiveness, depending on the season. Northern hemisphere gardeners have got until the 7th to finish their pruning and spraying.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jC3tQ6rbao 4 March 2010
Moon in the area of the sky 2000 years ago that was called Libra. This has shifted one sign around now, which is why astrologers don't look up but consult mathematical charts to find out 'true' positions. Moon in Libra is said to bring often cool winds. Only average fishing chances.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcfIRG0iMHo 3 March 2010
This daily chat may help farmers, gardeners, fishermen and women, and the lay person interested in weather, to see how the positions of the moon and planets influence weather patterns. Tides ebb and flow, as does weather. The sea and air are joined. Both have huge masses of water that manifest obvious tidal action. This ebbing and flowing does not originate on earth, but would logically be caused by the gigantic ebbing and flowing of forces much larger, from millions of miles away.