Final notice about earthquakes
SUNDAY APRIL 24, 2011
The 20 March situation saw two prominent spokesmen for the government making it clear that if I continued to put opinions on dates of earthquakes into the public arena I would be "held legally accountable". This was despite the media coming to me on the only occasions such opinions were publicly expressed. That story and publicly-stated threat is now well over a month old, yet apparently it was worth re-inventing by reporter Nathan Crombie of the Wairarapa Times, to whom on the Wednesday before Easter I refused to give any interview, and which nevertheless appeared on the front page of the the Easter Sunday papers as if it was a new development.
As to why, history tells us that Copernicus was warned by the power-holding clan not to express his views. I can only think that the Moon, even after 2000 years of it being labelled pagan, must still be a threat to the science and media community in this country. I suppose if the moon-method for prediction of weather and events such as earthquakes was validated it could dent the research-funding empire, and by warning of events before they happened it could cause print media to sell less newspapers, depending as they do on the element of surprise. The experts could be left high and dry and do not want, as happened in days long ago, for ordinary folk to work things out for themselves by observation of lunar patterns and cycles. If they did, the experts could be out of a job.
Are we a society in NZ where we permit and encourage science to think it has all the answers, and where alternatives are scorned? If that is the reality then this reality must be worked with and not against. It means new ideas and theories must wait for a better time to be discussed, when there is freedom to do so without villification by the state-salaried public servants who may feel afraid of competition.
It has been said it is only the weak who threaten the strong. A mature society tolerates many cultures and viewpoints, without the censoring hand of the State. It is narrow-visioned to be unidimensional because competition works better for all. Removing variety creates a boring and grey world. If you wanted to buy a pair of shoes you would surely prefer to go to a street that had many shoe shops, rather than only to the street with just the one shoe shop that was permitted by the government to operate.
In a recent article on my website
I expressed that because of the way some were misinterpreting my intentions, albeit accelerated by the media, it would be best stop talking about potential earthquake timings after April. As articles were already on the website that covered April, posted before the John Campbell Show and before the Dr Nick Smith / Sir Peter Gluckman announcements, the timeline meant that it would apply to any opinions beyond April. I gave that assurance and unless there is some media or politician-led change I do intend to be true to that word.
Nevertheless it is worth noting that this Easter weekend has been rather an active one. On 23 April there were a few shakes in Marlborough and a 6.9mag in the Solomons, also a 5.7 in Tonga and some 4+s in Christchurch. Today there have been more in Christchurch, causing the papers to comment that the city had awoken to a shaky start, including a 4.3mag at 9pm. It means the region of the southern Ring of Fire is still active over what is now still a fairly powerful perigee period. And it should not be taken as fear-mongering to say that with a potent neap tide this coming week, there should be no relaxing of precautions until April is well and truly over (Update: the neap tide of the week after Easter has indeed brought more earthquake activity). Perigee brings pressures and stresses - these sometimes take a while to build and then manifest.
There is currently a 15-day pattern of interest. The 29 April and 30 April are lunar equinox and apogee followed by new moon on 3 May, and to see how potent a mix this can be, let's look to the last time of this combination, but first in context with other recent big shocks. Regarding only Canterbury, recent last-biggest earthquake activity has occurred on these dates:
18-22 February (6.3mag in Lyttelton)
5 March (5.0mag, 557 tons, 7.4km at Redcliffs)
20 March, (5.4mag at Twizel, also several 4's) also three 5's elsewhere in NZ
2 April (13-tons 6kms at Cashmere)
4 April (4mag 15-tons, 10.3kms at Southshore).
7 April (4mag 15-tons, 6.4kms at Bromley).
16 April (5.3mag, 1 kiloton in Port Levy, also a 4.1 of 19 tons, 9.6km at Lyttelton, also earthquake activity in QLD.
19 April (4mag of 18 tons, 10.4kms in Southshore) as well a 6.5mag in Kermadecs.
(on 23rd as well, 6.9mag in Solomons and a 5mag in Fiji)
24 April (4.3mag in Lincoln) neap tide 25th-28th
It appears that energies may be pulsing on a fairly regular 15-day frequency, a twice-monthly function. A month underscores the Moon. A look at Southshore, Christchurch East, shows underground stresses that came to bear on 4 April then 19 April, 15 days apart. We can further note that 15 days before 4 April was 20 March. 15 -days again back gives us 5 March when once again there was a significant earthquake. And before 5 March, back 15 days takes us to 18 February, when solar activity began culminating in the events of 22 February. Even going back a further 15 days gives us the first week in February, when there was a 4.6mag on 4th at 104 tons at Burnham and a 4.1 at 71 tons at Lees Valley. From this hindsight-look this 15-day pulse of the Moon suggests that 29 April - 3 May could well be a time for vigilance.
But one need only take note of this date if one has an idea that Moon energies play a part in earthquakes. If not, then there is no need to either take any notice nor to take any special precautions. All one might ever do is take note of patterns and extrapolate from them. In the eyes of some, it is better to find some timetable than to have none at all. And even if guessed-at dates have a variance in timing, magnitude or location, at least there is peace of mind that comes from a time-line of correlating with Moon positions. Variance is permitted in all of forecasting, and meteorologists continually change their outlooks before a particular weekend arrives. The public accept this and thankfully now many have kitted-up, realising the chance of being subject to tremors is not over. Even geological experts now concur with that.
The last days of April will probably deliver increased seismic activity. Based on the 15-day pattern I happen to think there is a strong likelihood, as with previous perigee and apogee dates. Let us hope it is not our region. No one has all the answers, least of all me, and with earthquakes one is always hopeful of being wrong. I can only suggest timing, not magnitudes nor location, but that may not stop media from inventing figures I didn't say, as they did around 20 March. So the 29 April - 3 May remains the last risk date this comentator will be reporting on and a definite date range to watch. I think the risk is for seismicity, not necessarily earthquakes but eruptions, emissions, new fissures, volcanic activity, even just increased sulphur leakage hazardous to health - these are all possibilities in a currently active region. It is because of the current 15-day pattern I would suggest this final date (in my series of reports) be treated seriously.
After this date range this website resumes weather forecasting and climate-related discussions as before, for NZ, Australia and Ireland. We hope to be soon adding other countries to our service. Thanks for reading these September-April earthquake notes. The notes stop at this point, as always intended. But the earthquake activity continues when the Moon returns, with enough power to continue to splinter lives, homes and livelihoods at times that these articles have outlined. What are these?
Times to always be vigilante around are perigee/apogee combinations together with full and new moons, depending on kingtide timings, and at low tides on neaps and kings around these focus points. Equinox adds the Sun and flares, which, now becoming more established as we distance from the solar minimum, will energise the Earth's atmosphere enough to magnetise the field around Earth and put the stresses and pressures on the inner core that produce the earthquake releases.
Earthquakes, high kingtides, tornados and high winds, are all interrelated, as the Sun's emissions alter the electrical fields surrounding and within the planet. Astrometeorology is the only science that can work out which countries may be in the affected ranges. It is also the science in NZ not permitted a voice. April saw a swarm of tornados in USA including an EF4 super tornado in St Louis and a massive M6.9 earthquake in the Solomon Isles within hours. The high winds here must also be considered associated.
Yet no mainstream sceintist seems willing to look for links. None seem to think the Moon is anything but a big yellow thing in the night sky that has something to do with seatides. They seem hypnotised by weather-and-earthquakes-are-random ways of thinking. Are the eyes of science only on the next round of funding? If so, lunar studies might be a worthy candidate, with a phD course possibly offered in a university. As the inevitable inquiries follow this period in our history, when Cantabrians lost lives, when Christchurch lost its buildings and its heart, when scientists lost their way and when the self-serving media lost its mind, it could be something perhaps one educational institution, even the University of Canterbury might one day consider.
(Update: a 5.2mag happened today, the Apogee, 30 April at low tide near Oxford, 879 tons, felt over the whole South Island and with related earthquakes in Gisborne and Bay of Plenty.)