Ireland lookahead to summer
TUESDAY MAY 01, 2012
The headlines could be cool summer months with below normal sunshine and wet months to start and end the year. This year has begun with slightly warmer than normal months, as the almanac has suggested, which bodes well for the rest of the outlook. Rain is going to be above normal everywhere this year, particularly in the south and west. February and December were always going to be the wettest months. February was the windiest month and June and October are likely to be the driest months. The warmest month of the year averaged across the country may be August closely followed by July. There is some flooding in some areas expected for all counties in the beginning, just after middle and end of September to bring the significant floods for the year. After April, temperatures are anticipated to rapidly rise. There may be more rain right at at end of April and spanning the first week in May, but conditions should be mostly dry over May's second and last week.
April-Sept will be cool relative to normal with the exception of July which should be around normal.
Expect a slow start to a mild summer, with summer temperatures not arriving until the start of July and lasting for about two weeks into August, and till the second week of September in the west. The driest period of the year may be most of the second half of June. Little or no heavy rain events are expected between the third week in May to mid July. Warm temperatures may occur during the fourth week in June, also around the end of July coinciding with the full moon, as well as August. The warmest temperatures may come in the second week in August and may reach around 20-25C. The amount of sunshine is likely to be below normal and only October may be a really sunny month.
Overall each autumn month may be milder, with some brief drops in temperatures around mid October and cooler conditions setting in from the second week in December. On many days the temperatures may not register low but wind chills will be a deciding factor for outdoor events. November is also going to be warm and December mild and wet.
There are relatively short dry spells in May and June but of all dry spells my choice would be the last ten days of June. Another dry spell for all may be the last week of July and the first week of August, when mostly fine days are anticipated despite the odd passing shower. September has fairly short dry spells and the last dry interval may be during almost the whole second half of October.
There will probably be an exceptionally hot summer in Europe especially Central Europe, with parts of Germany, Austria and Czech Republic possibly about 5deg higher than normal. The hot weather elsewhere will be accompanised by scattered thundery showers, some very heavy because of the heat buildup, and that will be the cause of flooding. Due to dryness and heat there may be fires in some countries. But Ireland temps may just be around normal. It is next year that you will have a hot summer. The month to watch will be September because of the chances of flooding.
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