Back copies of newsletters
TUESDAY OCTOBER 06, 2015
The Back Story.
In New Zealand, Christchurch suffered a huge 7+mag earthquake on 4 September 2010. Three days later, on 7 September, 2010
, government geologists issued a press statement saying destructive Christchurch earthquakes "would not repeat for another 500-600 years
I had concern because my team's calculations showed that although the cluster of Christchurch earthquakes would die down after November 2010, they would
restart with renewed vigour around February 2011. Around then, and for about a month, the Moon would be at its shortest earth-moon distance for 19 years
. Therefore earthquakes were anticipated to arrive then, in prone areas all around the world, including Christchurch (the Japanese tsunami earthquake of 11 March 2011 happened in this small time frame
), because it was calculated that Christchurch would still be in the perigee line of sight.
The public needed to have this information so they could be prepared. Therefore that same day, 7 September 2010, the first warning
went out about more destructive earthquakes coming to the Christchurch region in around 6 months time(+/- a month)
. There was no intention to cause more anxiety - just the opposite.
Our Twitter account is: https://twitter.com/kenringweather
The tweets were
Tweet of 7 Sept
Tweet of 14 February
I posted the second tweet a week before the 22 February 2011, so that people could choose to stay away from the CBD for a few days. The tweet warnings were supported, with scientific reasons, by articles on www.predictweather.com.
The NZ government reacted adversely, saying that predicting was irresponsible.
The Minister cited the Incitement to Riot Act, although he seemed unaware that this particular Act was repealed in 1987. Please see Riot
Act. (The minister's threats are still current, they have not been rescinded). The Chief Science Advisor, then also stepped into the fray, refer:
After being informed by TV3 that 1500 people had requested my appearance on interview with the popular show 'Campbell Live', a live (at my insistence) interview was held on 28 February 2011. The interview was described afterwards as a trainwreck. Refer:
At first criticized as being abusive to an invited guest, the interview was first pulled from the internet, then reinstated after public protests. That night over 2000 complaints were received at TV3. Then the interview itself became news, went viral and was re-broadcast the next day on BBC and Fox news.
The next day host John Campbell privately rang me at 7am, as he explained, on instruction from his network, and invited me back onto his programme that evening. I asked if he would consider reversing the untruths he had told the nation (namely that there had been no international studies linking the moon to earthquakes when there were many such studies, as listed on my website, and certainly known to him because I had already sent the studio the links - at their request), but Campbell refused. So I said until more honesty and integrity was demonstrated by him and/or his network, there would be no point in my going back in front of his cameras for another round of bullying.
It had been a Claytons apology. John Campbell spent each night for the rest of that week criticizing me on air and interviewing people who were prepared to diss me (mainly scientists), without my opportunity to reply. It was a set-up - there was no way I was going to get any fair hearing. Yet all I had ever wanted to do was to provide information about how to predict earthquake timings, with a method that I thought that I had demonstrated could be effective, and I was prepared to share the method with anyone who wished to take advantage of it. Instead I was criticised for manipulating the media, to raise my own profile.
It was also claimed that I was doing it for money. But earthquake prediction has never constituted any part of my income. I have not earned even one cent from the exercise. I have done it purely to be helpful. To not warn when one perceives a looming danger to human life, would be unthinkable.
Then the New Zealand public were surprised to be told that geologists knew
the fatal earthquake of 22 February was coming but did not warn because they did not wish to cause alarm. Adverse public reaction followed, such that if geologists could indeed predict earthquakes then giving such warnings is what scientists were being paid to do. But geologists went silent on further earthquake activity and times.
My next website and twitter warning had been that the next large shake would be on 20 March 2011. Geologists, politicians and radio personalities met on the Port Hills. Refer:
It was a PR stunt by skeptics, a media beat-up and a denial, saying that any quake coming that day was going to be unlikely. It seemed that geologists who had previously claimed that earthquakes cannot be predicted, had suddenly found the ability to predict they would not arrive on a certain day.
Actually, the 20th turned out to be very seismically active, with no less than 46 events occurring, including three above 4-mag shakes in Twizel at 1.30pm. More significantly, the largest earthquake of the day and the third largest in the whole Christchurch series, listed by GNS as one of intensity-7, hit Christchurch that evening at 9.47pm. It was violent enough to destroy the house of Deputy Head Geologist Dr Mark Quigley, who had been one of the keynote speakers at the earlier lunch event. Refer:
20 March 2011
That earthquake was estimated by USGS to be 6-6.9mag. It was widely reported that it felt as big or bigger than any of the others, but anyway, most unsound buildings had already fallen. GNS reported the event as only a 5.1mag, describing it as 'not Ken Ring's earthquake'.
There was much structural strain on the Christchurch community, and after the Campbell Live debacle, that station's ratings went through the roof. It prompted TV1 and other networks to seek interviews, as well as magazines, Sunday newspapers etc. The NBR and Herald-on-Sunday both offered me editorials. Two women's magazines, New Idea and Womens Weekly, offered me 3-figure sums for interviews. Not wishing to be seen to be making money from a disaster, I said yes to the interviews but only if the money went to the Christchurch Red Cross and if the magazines were prepared to publicly acknowledge that, but they both refused.
So not wishing to be used in what was a ratings war, I refused any further media comment until 12 July 2011, with TV1's Mark Sainsbury, which was four months down the track and when I had previously estimated that 70-90% of the earthquake cluster would be over anyway.
I felt that there had been no way the media would allow me to present my side. That did not stop the media, and public comments attributed to me between 28 February 2011 and 12 July 2011 were pure journalistic fiction. They had me hiding in a secret location (I was in Gore raising money for the CRC by speaking and donating proceeds of books). I was supposed to be in Spain, in Australia, getting death threats; all media nonsense. In fact, between September 2010 and July 2011 there had been only the one interview, that with John Campbell. The public should know that throughout those 10 months, I was on the airwaves for less than 10 minutes, and even for that, the interviewer Campbell had done most of the talking. There was a widespread claim that I was scaremongering - but the media had created the furore and it was all about ratings. The misery of the earthquakes was mercilessly milked, especially by TV3. Every night viewers had to re-endure the worst scenes of the tragedy, giving the impression the quakes were still happening.
To avoid negative exposure and to answer growing public requests for information, I decided to make these free newsletters available, to present alternative viewpoints about earthquakes, Moon events and theories, weather-related subjects like El Nino and global warming etc, coming extreme events for three countries and our products. For Australia, NZ and Ireland we needed somewhere to put out our next-month outlooks.
The newsletters listed are from February 2012 to present day, with selected chapter headings. To receive the free newsletter monthly in your own Inbox, please click:
Register to receive newsletter
Subscription: We like to keep the newsletters short but still have more information. Therefore we also have a nominal subscription (around $8 per month- basically to cover admin costs), which enables access to free extensions of what would be in the newsletter,. To subscribe to gain free access to this range of other files of monthly lookaheads, including rain distribution maps, sets of monthly isobaric charts and moon, tide and fishing information, click http://www.predictweather.co.nz/Subscriptions.aspx then click where it says "Why subscribe"
To date we have 13,000 registrants.
Back issues of newsletters
Wellington earthquake 2015-16
Wellington and Picton earthquakes history
23-24 yr cycle
Titanic – perigee involved?
Earthquake monitor system
Air pressures, tide heights, alignments
Earthquake planet frequency
Planet tipping over
Order of earthquakes
Why 2 tides per day
CO2 a pollutant
Traditional earthquake myths exposed
Can we affect the weather?
Planting by the moon - theory
Can we affect the weather?
Seismicity of NZ
News for investors
Oil not running out
Eclipse in November
Moon Perigee, Earth Tides and Tectonic Activity
Tutorial Article: Moon Notes
A Review: Above 5mag Earthquakes in NZ
Years of Largest Shakes
What Climate Change?
Summer Outlook for NZ
ECLIPSE: Dark Morning on 14 November
Will there be an earthquake on 13th?
Possible seismic activity for 7-9 and 13-14 December
Long runs of fine weather over for the north?
Summary of 2013 months
Rest of 2013
Next summer - will there be a drought? (No)
Value of science
When does extreme become ‘more extreme’?
Big dry in eastern Australia
For the fisherman fishing phase
What goes around
Earthquake theory questioned
Drought next year in Northland?
Depends what you mean by drought.
The Big One
The near Future? Should we worry?
Copernicus, please come back
Climate Changers Dancing in the Streets
Climate Change - the evidence they don't want people to see
Drought notes for New Zealand
Bush fires in NSW
Ireland’s coming winter
Is it or isn’t it? (equinox winds)
Bush fires in NSW
Looking after – the planet?
Prepare For A Hot Summer
Plenty Of Oil
Notes About Sunspot Cycle 24
2014 for Australia
2014 for NZ
2014 for Ireland
Earthquakes not our main concern
Whales, Earthquakes and the Moon
Moon and Earthquakes?
Does the Moon Contribute to Strandings
Global Warmers Glad To See The Back of 2013
First cold for Christchurch
Christchurcha water city
El Nino this year? Probably not
You can’t keep a good moon down
Complaint not upheld
What You May Not Know About Easter
Why the 1959 drought may return around 2019
Our Inconstant Dwarf
Wives tales and weather
Why What Is In The Air Cannot Affect Weather
Links To Other Astrometeorologists
Earth, Sun and Mercury
Analysing June earthquake activity
Dancing with the stars
2015 for NZ
Opinion: Dirty Science
Monsoons and cyclones
Mid May 2015