I appear to be one of a very small number of longrange forecasters in NZ and Australia. There is a message we have all been trying to convey for a number of years, with thanks to supportive publications, TV hosts, and radio stations. The role of a longrange forecaster is to warn. If not, then what is it? That warning must be backed up by evidence or examples of repeating patterns returning. The message we feel farmers should be aware of has not been challenged by others in our field and I would suggest we are all on the same page. Those in my field include financial astrologers, commodity traders, and a few forward looking economists.
On 28 February 2016 I returned from Melbourne after the week of the annual combined weather and commodity workshop that was co-hosted with and organised by Australian commodity expert David Burton. At last year's sessions we predicted that the fiscal situation would increasingly show signs of deterioration over the next few years. Recently cotton, wheat, canola and the Australian dollar, Yen, BP and EURO have dropped in market value. David Burton is kiwi-born but resides in Australia. He has been Australia's top commodity analyst for 30 years. Farmers and investors who are his clientele have saved themselves millions by selling their crop when the price is right. This is not an advertisement for him because his list of clientele is closed. But it is a wake up call for any farmers not completely aware of when to best make correct financial decisions that could impact severely on their economic return.
All the questions at the workshop sessions last week were from those currently with piles of debt, whereas many of David's clients have already sold up and are looking forward to buying at the bottom in four to five years time. David predicted the great boom in wheat 12 years in advance, and when millions were lost in the droughts in 2008, his clients received $600 a tonne. In fact the grower who received the highest price for wheat ever in Australia was at the workshop; he received $796 a tonne in 2010.
For those who wish to take note the signals are everywhere. Big companies are going to the wall, like Woolworths and Dick Smith. In both Australia and NZ, banks are becoming ever more desperate for people to take out cheap money for mortgages that eager clients will not be able to future-service. Fonterra too, have been on an expansion spree, building new offices etc, when they perhaps should have been conserving for bad times ahead.
Ex-University of Queensland climatologist Dr Jennifer Marohasy also briefly told the seminar how Australian in some locations rain station data has been falsified to bolster the government's case for global warming. It seems the public could be being severely misled, in the state of economic matters, in matters of climate and in investment advice.
I presented my weather findings to show how Moon and Sun cycles, in particular repeating combinations, in turn dependent on movements of larger planets, have always created disastrous economic consequences through drought or floods. What is happening now economically is entirely cyclic. We are half way down since the downturn began in 2007/8, which was on the cusp of maximum lunar declination and minimum of the solar cycle. The big drought is coming and all farmers and stockholders could be preparing for it immediately by downsizing and destocking what they can and becoming financially secure right now. We should emerge from the predicted economic decline around 2021. This is not scaremongering, simply longrange forecasting combined with trading forecasts.
The message is to clear all debt immediately and sell if you can during 2016, which means getting rid of extra properties not essential to your main income. But above all
. Wait about 4 years and invest when prices are much lower. It means just doing nothing for a couple of years and being patient.
But we are seeing the beginnings now, and can take note if it. We all know there is a downward trend going on and things are getting tougher, and despite their weak reassurances you cannot rely on the banks to rescue you. Everyone is saying they don't know where it's going, well, perhaps that is what they want you to think so you stay in the dark, but it is not difficult to get a fair idea. One cycle match to 1898 which was a massive drought in NZ, was just before the Australian Great Federation Drought of 1901 which affected all states in Australia, and is provably equivalent to what is arriving before 2020. Our seminars have been designed to show the proof of this - the way that planetary cycles are responsible for droughts, e.g. Jupiter/Saturn conjunctions and Neptune/Saturn oppositions, and HAVE been ever since the year dot. Investors who have over extended recently will be leading the list of the bankrupts in 4 years time. They are perhaps unaware of the precarious danger in which they have placed themselves, their families, their employees and shareholders.
Do we need further proof? Wheat futures have gone to new lows for 8 years. This was warned of in 2008 by David, but he was laughed at at the time for saying that it would be the highest peak before a meltdown. The lowest contract was the December contract back in 2009 at $4.3950. The March contract hit $4.37 today, close below that low of 2009.
There remains 60% of old crop still left to sell in Australia. They will hold on, it is human nature, they do this every time until they will be forced to sell at the bottom with a loss. $3.60 is the next target.
So if there is doubt one can ask, do cycles rule or is the situation linear? There is no evidence for linearity but plenty of evidence for cycles, in nature, in human and animal behaviour and above all in weather patterns which get reflected in agricultural yield. In turn this drives or impedes a country's economy.
If one accepts that cycles rule, then the next question is
on the cycle are we currently? Again it must surely be clear to anyone who follows market fluctuations that we have just passed a boom. House prices soared upwards to 2014-15 and have stabilised now. And now it is the
of the tide. What happens on the turn of the ocean tide? Things go quiet, there is a stillness. In human terms people feel uneasy without knowing why. When was a boom followed by another boom? Not as often as a boom was followed by a bust. Happiness follows sadness, we ebb and flow like tides, we tell ourselves to wait and things will pass and of course they do, in time. With the exception of exaggerations like tsunamis have you ever seen a coastal tide keep coming in without going out again?
Economic matters are no different to sea tides. Share market crashes are no different to tsunamis. We only have to look to Australia, the land of droughts, to see which droughts affect NZ, as our drought years, about every 4-7 years have absolutely matched those in Australia.
1907/8: Hawkes Bay, Nelson, Marlborough and mid Canterbury. 59 days of no rain at Motueka. 20mm in 81 days at Christchurch. Also throughout most of Australia.
1916-17: Wanganui, Nelson and parts of Marlborough. 17mm in 75 days at Wanganui. 58 days of no rain Nelson region. Also Australia beginning in 1915.
1972-73: (NI, SI, Tasman, Otago, Sthld, NZ, Wgtn, Marl). Also all Australia 1972 except Gulf Pen.
1977-78: ( NI, SI, Taranaki, Manawatu, Sthld, NZ, BoP, Waikato, Cant). Also Australia in 1977 - WA, VIC, and all bottom half.
1997-98: (NI, SI, HB, Wgtn, Cant, Marl, Gis). Also in Australia 1997 especially VIC.
There is a need for public discussion on this matter before there are casualties. It is a matter of history that the Christchurch earthquakes were predicted well beforehand but the warnings were not from government geologists and so were pooh poohed.
Tweet of 7 Sept
Tweet of 14
Consequently most citizens of Christchurch were lead to believe that the earthquakes appeared out of nowhere and were not a function of sun and moon orbits, and the complacency proved disastrous. The coming economic collapse due to drought has, like destructive earthquakes at a particular location, happened before in a location's history so the notion is not new, but there is no government-sanctioned warning industry in place. Perhaps this should change. Taxpayers deserve information that ensures protection of their assets. So what if we're wrong? Yes, that's on the cards. But people would still have their money because they sold when the price was high and they made themselves debt free. Nothing was lost. But what if we're right? Why wait until it may be too late?
The name Inigo Jones
still fondly remembered by many farmers of the previous generation. Jones' pioneering work utilised sunspots and the orbits of planets to predict droughts. So successful were his calculations that over half a century ago the BoM employed him and incorporated his findings into their seasonal recommendations.
In recent decades, longrange forecasting has been swept aside by the global warming industry, and the true science of cycles has been hijacked by tax-grabbing governments, leaving farmers in the hands of forecasters who are only taught short range techniques going no further than 10 days ahead. It has not been helpful.
The financial futures of farming families are always at risk from making inaccurate calls about coming growing seasons. We had the idea of running seminars to teach the cycles of weather and how to idenftify them which would enable farmers to do their own future projecttions.
Forewarned is being forearmed. Many vital decisions nowadays are made on the basis of whims, educated guesses, hearsay, and recommendations by e.g. banking advisers. Many of these folk do a good job, but we can go a step further and provide some real-time tools and methods that can be immediately put to use.
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